10/09/2026
California's pistachio industry is facing an unprecedented production shock.
Following a record 1.58-billion-pound harvest in 2025, current estimates place the 2026 crop at just 600 to 800 million pounds. That is a staggering potential reduction of up to 62 percent.
With a dramatically smaller crop and limited carryover inventory, expect exceptionally high prices for the 2026 harvest. But here is the catch: higher prices do not automatically translate to higher profits for growers dealing with severe yield losses.
For agricultural landowners and investors, it is crucial to remember that a temporary increase in commodity prices should not automatically be capitalized into long-term orchard valuations. We need to watch how quickly production normalizes and if higher pricing can be sustained once supplies recover.
Expect unusually strong pricing for the 2026 crop, but exercise caution when projecting those prices into future years.
Contact me today to discuss what this means for Central Valley agricultural real estate and your investment strategy.
Ryan Davis
Ag Real Estate Professional