10/15/2026
Hi Friends!
This fall, we're seeing fewer buyers move forward with offers than we did at the same time last year. Higher mortgage rates are putting more pressure on monthly budgets. But a slower market doesn't mean your real estate goals have to go on hold. It means we need a clear plan.
Portland Metro: This fall versus last fall
The latest complete month of RMLS data is September, and the year-over-year comparison tells the story:
Pending sales: 1,760 homes went under contract in September 2026, compared with 2,145 in September 2025. That's a 17.9% decrease, or 385 fewer accepted offers.
New listings: 2,487, compared with 2,498 last September. The flow of new listings was almost unchanged, while fewer buyers were committing.
Inventory and time: Inventory rose to 4.2 months from 3.8 months. Total market time increased to 68 days from 62. That slowdown isn't the same as a broad price drop. September's median sale price was $545,000 in both years. And pending sales for January through September were nearly even with last year. The recent fall slowdown is what stands out, rather than a year that has been slower from start to finish.
Something I'm watching
In early October last year, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.30%. As of October 8 this year, it was 7.40%. That's a 1.1% increase, and it changes how much home a monthly budget can support. These are national averages, not a quote for your loan. Rates aren't the only reason people pause, but they are a real affordability hurdle. Fewer accepted offers suggest a smaller pool of buyers ready to act. For buyers who can comfortably afford today's payment, that may create more room to compare homes and negotiate. For sellers, it makes pricing and preparation especially important.
So what does this mean for you?
For motivated sellers: This is a time to sell with intention. If moving is the right next step for you, let's price for today's competition, prepare the home well, and respond quickly to showing feedback. Starting high and waiting for last year's buyer to appear is a harder plan in this market. We can also compare a price adjustment with offering help toward a buyer's closing costs. The goal is to find terms that work for your bottom line and the buyer's budget.
For buyers: Don't let the headline rate make the entire decision. Let's start with a comfortable monthly payment, including taxes, insurance, and any HOA dues. Then we can look for homes and sellers where there may be room to negotiate on price, repairs, or closing costs. A smaller buyer pool can create an opening, but it doesn't mean every home will be a bargain. Ask your lender to compare loan offers side by side, including fees and cash needed at closing. We can also explore whether negotiated seller credits could help cover allowable closing costs or discount points to lower your rate, subject to your loan's rules. Points have an upfront cost, so compare the savings with how long you expect to keep the loan. A lower rate isn't automatically the better deal.
The plan needs to work with today's payment. A future refinance might be an option, but it should never be what makes the purchase affordable. For some people, the right strategy will still be to wait. For others, careful negotiating and a realistic financing plan can keep a move within reach.
Thinking about a move? Reply and let's look at your price range, your timeline, and what the numbers would mean for you. We can build a plan around your goals, rather than letting the rate headline decide for you.
As always, grateful to be your go-to resource for all things Portland real estate.
