12/04/2019
Most informative reading material published by FNB.
FNB ESTATE AGENTS SURVEY:
STATS:
15.3 Weeks on market
10 Serious viewers
9.4% Drop in Asking price
Reasons for selling:
Estate agents perceive “Downscaling because of life stage” as still the most prominent reason for selling a property in SA, with such sales accounting for 23% of all sales, flat from the previous quarter. Furthermore, emigration driven sales are gradually increasing, accounting for 14.2% of all sales, up from 10% in 4Q18.
In fact such sales, according to estate agents, have doubled in the past two years and are, as expected, more prominent in the coastal areas and in upmarket segments. On a slightly positive note, although downscaling due to financial pressure has become increasingly prominent in the past year, the estimated proportion of such sales eased to 15.9% in 1Q19, from 19% in 4Q18.
Of those who sell due to financial pressure, an estimated half opt for the rental market, and the other half opts for a cheaper property.
The proportion of those who opt for rentals has, over the past year, been rising, only retreating in 1Q19 at approximately 49.01% from 68.01% in 4Q18.
However, these trends do not appear to have benefited the rental market, as vacancies are reported to be increasing and rental inflation continues to languish below inflation.
One explanation could be that households are consolidating in the rental market,opting for shared space.
Related to this, the survey shows that, although not a dominant trend yet,there is a rising trend of communal living property purchases (we define this as people buying property jointly with friends or other extended family members with a view to living together to share expenses/repayments).
The 1Q19 results show that 15.9% of respondent agents are seeing this trend increasing in their respective markets, up from 12.7% in 4Q18.
This consumer behaviour is not surprising when viewed in the context of housing expenses outpacing wage growth, and consistent with other manifestations of consumer pressures in adjacent markets, such as the passenger car market wherein total volumes are declining but the proportion of SUVs (family-oriented cars) is rising.
Bottom line:
The FNB Estate Agents Survey reveals that supply-demand imbalances are still prevalent in the South African housing market, although they were not perceived to have worsened in the first three months of 2019. More positively,
there are more optimistic agents than there are pessimistic about near-term market prospects. Meaningful near-term recovery will pivot on improvement in economic conditions and a turnaround in the current consumer pessimism.
Disclaimer
The information in this publication is derived from sources which are regarded as accurate and reliable, is of a general nature only, does not constitute advice and may not be applicable to all circumstances.
Detailed advice should be obtained in individual cases. No responsibility for any error, omission or loss sustained by any person acting or refraining from acting as a result of this publication is accepted by Firstrand Group Limited and/or the authors of the material.
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