28/12/2015
What is really important?
For South African investors December was quite an emotional roller-coaster. From the moment news broke that the Minister of Finance was fired the Rand plunged to new lows against all the major currencies, bond and equity markets reacted negatively and emotion took over the investment decision making proses.
We know money is highly emotional and the worst financial decisions are normally made when those decisions are based on emotion. The events of December made me wonder if my advice to clients is still relevant anymore. Why not just move all our investments offshore, pack up and leave? However this thinking process is typical of emotionally based investment decisions.
This morning I came across the following quote by Warren Buffett.
"Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago."
This made me realise that we need to keep to our long-term goals and not let short term price volatility and emotions get the better of us. The age of a tree is determined by counting the year-rings. Some of these year-rings is wide and normally lighter of colour. This wider, lighter coloured year-rings correspond with periods of rapid growth and conditions conducive to growth. The darker thinner year-rings corresponded with periods of slow growth and droughts. For the tree to become a big tree with lots of shade to sit under it stays in the same place and does not pack up and move every time there is a drought.
Investments are just like trees; there will be times of rapid growth and there will be periods of slow growth or consolidation. 2009 to 2014 was a period of rapid growth. Since the beginning of 2015 investment markets have not performed and this will most probably stay with us for the foreseeable future. Just like trees, we don’t know when the drought will end and the next rainy season will start. We cannot predict the investment markets. However if we stick to our long-term plan and not let our emotions get the better of us, we will have the best chance of reaching our long-term goals.
My advice for 2016 is “plant a tree” and if you already have a tree “look after it”. In the long run it will give shade to sit under.