Washington Home Buyer's Association

10/12/2025

Sales of existing homes are expected to grow moderately as the lock-in effect of low mortgage rates for current owners begins to wane. Still, affordability will remain a significant challenge, particularly for first-time buyers.

Although newly built homes will continue to fill in supply gaps in specific markets, as more sellers decide to list their homes, builders will face more competition.

The days of comprehensive real estate listings on consumer-friendly portals such as Zillow or Realtor may be numbered. Instead, buyers may need to visit multiple websites or visit real estate offices in person to obtain a comprehensive overview of local housing markets.

Mortgage rates are expected to range from approximately 6% to 7% unless a recession occurs; however, short-term lending rates could start falling more quickly in late 2025 or early 2026.

Over the next five years, expect some major societal shifts, including changing immigration policy and expanding tariffs, a falling domestic birth rate, and the rise of single-person households. Coupled with the expansion of AI into more aspects of our daily lives and the rising costs of property ownership, including damages, these trends will impact the housing industry in the years to come.

Still, for the housing market, the most critical factor is mortgage rates: If they remain relatively high compared with the period from early 2009 through mid-2022, transactions will remain limited to changes in jobs, finances, or household composition. However, if mortgage rates manage to fall more quickly, pent-up demand from the last few years could be unleashed, with volumes returning closer to historic norms. How this plays out will determine just how different the list of the hottest housing markets in 2030 may look compared to 2025.

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10/12/2025

Interest rates remain one of the most significant forces shaping the housing market in 2025. While rates are not at their peak, they are still higher than buyers grew accustomed to during the pandemic.
Higher borrowing costs reduce purchasing power, which naturally puts downward pressure on prices. At the same time, many homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates are choosing not to move, limiting supply and preventing sharper declines.

If interest rates ease by the end of the year, demand could strengthen, but looking beyond 2025, the housing market is expected to find equilibrium rather than swing dramatically. Demographic trends, such as millennials entering peak homebuying years, will continue to support steady demand. Supply challenges, including limited new construction in certain areas, will also provide a floor under prices.

It is unlikely to spark the kind of price surge seen in past years.
While short-term fluctuations are always possible, the long-term outlook remains one of gradual growth, rather than a steep correction.
So, Housing Market 2025: Will Prices Go Up or Down? The latest updates suggest a market that is cooling modestly but not collapsing. Prices in some regions are inching lower, while others hold steady or rise slightly. Buyers can take advantage of increased choices, and sellers must adjust expectations to succeed in a more balanced environment.

The answer is nuanced: nationally, prices may dip slightly, but the housing market of 2025 is defined more by stabilization than by volatility.

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10/12/2025

Outlook for the Rest of 2025
The second half of 2025 is expected to follow a similar pattern to the first: slow growth in some areas, slight declines in others, and no significant nationwide collapse. Forecasts suggest that home values may finish the year slightly lower than where they began, but the change is likely to be under 2%.

Some analysts expect modest growth in regions where demand remains strong, especially in mid-sized cities with job opportunities and limited new construction. Others see continued cooling in overheated markets where affordability is stretched.

10/12/2025

The Current National Picture
Across the United States, housing prices in 2025 are showing signs of moderation. After several years of rapid appreciation, growth has slowed, and in some cases, prices are leveling out. National forecasts suggest that the market could end the year with a slight decline, though the change is expected to be modest rather than dramatic.

Buyers now have more homes to choose from, thanks to rising inventory levels. This increase in supply has reduced some of the intense bidding wars seen in prior years. Sellers, on the other hand, are adjusting expectations as listings take longer to attract competitive offers.

10/12/2025

Recent weeks have brought some signs that the housing market is trending in a positive direction: home prices are growing more slowly, and mortgage rates are starting to fall.

This summer’s housing market was less about sizzle and more about cooling, giving buyers some relief and sparking enough demand to hint at what fall could bring. Slowing home price growth, builder incentives, rising inventory in some regions and easing mortgage rates are giving buyers more optio

04/24/2025

Increase in Concessions from Home Sellers to Buyers

Redfin recently released a report analyzing the current rate of concessions sellers give buyers in the housing market. According to the report, home sellers gave concessions to buyers in 44.4% of U.S. home-sale transactions in the first quarter of 2025, a nearly 5% jump from one year ago and about 1% below the high recorded in early 2023. Redfin defines a concession as a seller-provided monetary incentive that reduces a buyer’s total purchasing cost on a home. Concessions can include money toward repairs, closing costs, or mortgage-rate buydowns. While the rate of concessions varies across the 24 major metro areas that Redfin analyzed, the report notes that concession increases stem from competition among sellers; overpriced homes, which are causing homes to linger in the market; challenges with selling condos due to skyrocketing HOA fees; and new construction seller preferences to keep sale prices high but offer discounts through concessions to sell successfully. The report further highlights sellers forced to offer concessions and cut prices to sell their properties, and those who have had their pending sales fall through due to current economic uncertainties.

03/21/2025

Fed Holds Rates Steady as U.S. Adjusts to Economic Changes

More than a third of Americans said they want the housing market to crash because they think it would lower home prices and property taxes.

03/20/2025

Market activity is increasing, but affordability remains questionable!

The U.S. economy remains robust with strong Q3 growth driven by consumer spending.

10/06/2024

Puget Sound home prices were roughly flat from August to September and up in most areas from a year earlier. The median single-family home in King County sold for $950,000 in September, up 6% from a year earlier.

King County home prices climbed most on the Eastside, where the median single-family home sold for about $1.5 million, up 7% from a year earlier. In Southwest King County, including Federal Way and Burien, the median home sold for $635,000, up 6%. The median home in Seattle sold for $938,000, up 1%.

Home price activity through September 2024
Monthly median sale prices for single-family homes in the central Puget Sound region varied depending on the county. The median is the price at which half sold for more and half sold for less.

Source: Northwest Multiple Listing Service (Reporting by Heidi Groover /chart by Mark Nowlin / The Seattle Times)
Median homes sold for about $567,000 in Pierce County, up 6%; $775,000 in Snohomish County, up 3%; and $549,000 in Kitsap County, down 2%.

The median King County condo sold for about $559,000, up 8.5% from September 2023, driven by price hikes of 10% in Seattle and 11% on the Eastside. Seattle condo prices reflect both homes in apartmentlike multifamily buildings as well as small single-family-style homes constructed as accessory dwelling units and sold as condos.

Buyers are finding more homes to choose from, but the number of homes hitting the market remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

09/04/2024

Your mortgage could be an important part of your retirement plan, according to financial experts

“People see the money in their bank,” says Jason Stein, a certified financial planner and founder of Bluepoint Wealth Advisors. “They see the money in their brokerage account, their 401(k)s, their [individual retirement accounts]. They don’t often think about the money that is built up in their home.”

Here’s why financial experts say it might be smart to view your mortgage as part of your retirement savings, instead of an expense.

Debt that pays it forward
You shouldn’t necessarily think of your mortgage payments as burdensome expenses. Instead, they can be seen as healthy debt, says Winnie Sun, co-founder of Sun Group Wealth Partners.

“There’s obviously unhealthy debt, like credit cards and things like that,” Sun says. “And then there’s debt that could pay it forward. One is student loans, obviously, right? And then the mortgage.”

Certain types of debt can be considered healthy because they help fulfill a need like education or shelter. And for the most part, you can expect to make consistent, predictable payments at a fixed.

Your mortgage payment can be thought of as two parts: the interest and the principal amount of your loan, Stein says. The only part of the payment that is a true expense is the interest. You can’t recover the interest you paid if you decide to sell your home, but you are able to regain the dollars spent paying down the principal.

After you’ve paid off your mortgage, “you recover some of the value of those payments that you’ve made throughout the years” when you sell your home, even though there are transaction costs involved, he says.

‘It’s almost like forced savings’
Your home serves an important need in the present as shelter, but is also a valuable investment for your long-term savings, Sun says. If you have a fixed-rate mortgage, she adds, you’re paying a constant, predetermined amount on your home, compared with say, paying rent each month, which could fluctuate.

“It’s not like an investment property, because you’re using it for shelter, but it certainly benefits you,” Sun says. “Because instead of paying someone else’s mortgage, [like] when you’re renting, you’re paying your own mortgage, and so you have the possibility of having that asset grow over time.”

As the property appreciates, the option to sell your home in retirement becomes more viable. That cash can be factored into your retirement plan and take away possible worries about not saving enough.

It’s not unlike managing routine contributions to your retirement accounts, such as a 401(k).

“Each year, you’re actually saving more than you realize, because you’re paying off a loan balance that at some point in the future can be recovered by selling the house, which also may have appreciated,” Stein says.

Your expected cash flow in retirement likely includes sources like retirement account withdrawals and Social Security benefits. But those may not be enough to cover the lifestyle you want, and you may not want to cut out discretionary purchases, like travel, Stein says. That’s where selling your house might come into play.

What you might think of as a monthly expense could be a key part of your retirement plan later on.