01/02/2024
Mortgage Rate Predictions for 2024
Here is how some experts predict market conditions will affect the average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage in 2024:
• National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates look to head towards 7% in a few months and into the 6% range by the spring of 2024.”
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• RSM U.S. real estate senior analyst Crystal Sunbury. “Assuming no significant economic shocks, mortgage rates are likely to continue slowly easing over the next few months, to reach a 6% to 6.5% range by spring of 2024.”
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• Homebuyer.com. First-time home buyers will see 4.25% mortgage rates no later than this summer.
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• Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). MBA’s baseline forecast is for mortgage rates to end 2024 at 6.1% and reach 5.5% at the end of 2025 as Treasury rates decline and the spread narrows.
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• Bank of America head of retail lending Matt Vernon. “The Fed’s likely decision to cut rates in 2024 would be a key factor that could breathe new life into the housing market. However, it’s important to note that significant drops in mortgage rates might not happen in the early months of 2024. If any reductions occur, they are likely to be gradual, possibly beginning in the latter part of the year.”
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• Palisades Group chief investment officer and co-founder Jack Macdowell. “Our best guess is that mortgage rates will remain in the 7% to 7.25% range throughout Q1 2024.”
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• Fannie Mae Housing Forecast. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage will average 7% in Q1 2024 and slowly decline over the year, landing at a Q4 average of 6.5%.
