05/03/2026
Great speaking at the Compass San Francisco Beach Street office on how Napa and Sonoma Counties track the San Francisco market.
San Francisco has had one of the strongest real estate comebacks we’ve seen in years, and we’re starting to feel that momentum move north. Historically, we lag the city by about 6 to 12 months, and this feels like the early stages of that cycle.
Two to three years ago, if I could have bought real estate anywhere in the world, it would have been San Francisco—when nothing was selling. Today, when I’m asked that same question, my answer is simple: right here at home, where quality custom properties in prime locations are trading at 30–70% below replacement cost.
Above $5M, we’re still in a clear buyer’s market with elevated inventory and limited absorption, while sub-$5M feels more balanced. At the same time, much of the real activity—especially at the high end—is happening off market and doesn’t always show up in the data.
Over the past six months, we’ve felt a subtle shift, with real momentum building in just the last 4–6 weeks across all price points, including over $10M.
Watch the stock market, IPOs, liquidity, sentiment, and rates—but also watch inventory levels and off-market activity. That’s where the real story is right now.
