Matthew Gardner - Real Estate Economist

06/23/2026

I am Spokane bound to talk all things housing at the Association of Washington Cities 2026 Annual Conference. My comments are going to focus on housing demand over the next 20-years and why - unless a lot more change is made - it will be extremely hard to meet the needs of the 1.1 million new households that I expect will be formed.

Will you be there? If you are, find me and say hello!

06/17/2026

06/11/2026

Earlier this week I was interviewed by TVW -- Washington Public Affairs Network reporter, Mike McClanahan, to discuss the challenges facing Washington State's residential and commercial real estate markets. Below is a link to the interview.

A comprehensive look at two very different real estate market dynamics impacting Washington: a surplus of vacant office space available and an ongoing

05/17/2026

I’m exploring Paris’ 13th Arrondissement and have found it to have of the most striking examples of intra-neighbourhood price dispersion I’ve seen in any European condominium market.

Butte-aux-Cailles - a gentrified village pocket in the north of the arrondissement - commands prices at a significant premium over Olympiades, a 1970s tower cluster that remains a relative value pocket just minutes away. Same district. Dramatically different pricing.

The usual explanations apply: streetscape, amenity access, architectural character. But the more interesting driver right now is energy performance.

France’s DPE regulations have progressively removed the least efficient properties from the ownership rental market. G-rated units were banned from new lettings in 2025. F-rated units follow in 2028. E-rated units in 2034. Given that the 13th’s housing stock is dominated by post-war and 1970s construction, a substantial share of its condominium market sits squarely in the crosshairs.

The mechanism is straightforward: rental prohibition destroys the investment case for energy-inefficient units, compressing demand and pushing prices down. Renovated or naturally higher-rated stock absorbs that demand, pushing prices up. The result is a price wedge that is likely to widen as each regulatory deadline approaches.

Although the 13th has the greatest amount of developable land within inner Paris, this will not address affordability as more units will be removed than added.

Interesting stuff!

05/13/2026

You can take the housing economist out of the U.S., but he’ll still be checking out the market!

05/06/2026

Mortgage rates pulled back meaningfully today, with the average 30-year fixed rate falling to 6.44% - down 10 basis points and back to where it stood last Friday.

That reverses most of Monday’s sharp spike, which had pushed rates to their highest level in over a month amid escalating tensions in the Iran conflict.

What changed? Overnight reports that the U.S. and Iran are close to agreeing a preliminary peace framework sent oil prices and bond yields tumbling at their fastest pace since mid-April. Lower bond yields pull mortgage rates down with them (the two move in the same direction, though not always at the same speed).

This is welcome news, but it’s well worth keeping some perspective. Rates remain well above the lows of earlier this year, and a preliminary memo is NOT a signed peace agreement. Markets can - and do - reverse quickly when geopolitical headlines shift.

So! What does this mean for buyers and sellers? A 10-basis-point move won’t transform affordability, but it does restore a degree of stability after what’s been a very volatile few days.