Matthew Gardner - Real Estate Economist

05/17/2026

I’m exploring Paris’ 13th Arrondissement and have found it to have of the most striking examples of intra-neighbourhood price dispersion I’ve seen in any European condominium market.

Butte-aux-Cailles - a gentrified village pocket in the north of the arrondissement - commands prices at a significant premium over Olympiades, a 1970s tower cluster that remains a relative value pocket just minutes away. Same district. Dramatically different pricing.

The usual explanations apply: streetscape, amenity access, architectural character. But the more interesting driver right now is energy performance.

France’s DPE regulations have progressively removed the least efficient properties from the ownership rental market. G-rated units were banned from new lettings in 2025. F-rated units follow in 2028. E-rated units in 2034. Given that the 13th’s housing stock is dominated by post-war and 1970s construction, a substantial share of its condominium market sits squarely in the crosshairs.

The mechanism is straightforward: rental prohibition destroys the investment case for energy-inefficient units, compressing demand and pushing prices down. Renovated or naturally higher-rated stock absorbs that demand, pushing prices up. The result is a price wedge that is likely to widen as each regulatory deadline approaches.

Although the 13th has the greatest amount of developable land within inner Paris, this will not address affordability as more units will be removed than added.

Interesting stuff!

05/13/2026

You can take the housing economist out of the U.S., but he’ll still be checking out the market!

05/06/2026

Mortgage rates pulled back meaningfully today, with the average 30-year fixed rate falling to 6.44% - down 10 basis points and back to where it stood last Friday.

That reverses most of Monday’s sharp spike, which had pushed rates to their highest level in over a month amid escalating tensions in the Iran conflict.

What changed? Overnight reports that the U.S. and Iran are close to agreeing a preliminary peace framework sent oil prices and bond yields tumbling at their fastest pace since mid-April. Lower bond yields pull mortgage rates down with them (the two move in the same direction, though not always at the same speed).

This is welcome news, but it’s well worth keeping some perspective. Rates remain well above the lows of earlier this year, and a preliminary memo is NOT a signed peace agreement. Markets can - and do - reverse quickly when geopolitical headlines shift.

So! What does this mean for buyers and sellers? A 10-basis-point move won’t transform affordability, but it does restore a degree of stability after what’s been a very volatile few days.

04/01/2026

Had a fun visit with my good friend, Dean Jones, on his Podcast where we discussed everything from recent legislative actions to the impact that AI is having on the Seattle area. Always a fun time with my old friend.

03/19/2026

I am honored to share that I’ve been recognized with the Pulsenomics 2025 Crystal Ball Award for forecast accuracy of the Fannie Mae Home Price Index.

I am grateful to be part of such a thoughtful group of housing economists and analysts - in contributing to the ongoing conversation around where the U.S. housing market is headed.

Thank you Terry Loebs and Fannie Mae, and congratulations to the other award recipients.

03/05/2026

Want to understand the future of the housing market? Watch where people move.

The U.S. population is still growing — now approaching 342 million — but growth is slowing.

What’s driving housing demand today isn’t births… it’s migration.

People continue moving toward states with lower housing costs, job growth, and better quality of life — especially across the South and parts of the Midwest.

Meanwhile, nearly 20 states would have lost population last year without international migration.

Demographics are reshaping the housing market in real time.

Where do you think the next big population growth will happen?

America’s population is changing, and those shifts are transforming housing demand, real estate markets, and local economies across the country. In this epis...

02/16/2026

Why do homes today cost so much more than we earn!? In this episode of Mind the [Housing] Market, I discuss the numerous reasons why as well as to share my reasoning why it will be so hard to lower the ratio between incomes and home values.
https://youtu.be/FoMQ8bUPprQ

01/24/2026

There’s certainly some differing opinions regarding the direction of the US housing market in 2026. What do you think?

Everyone has a 2026 forecast. Few agree on what actually happens next.
Matthew Gardner breaks down where NAR, Zillow, Redfin, Fannie Mae, MBA, Realtor.com and Compass align — and where expectations may be too optimistic.

Sales. Prices. Rates. Here’s what’s most realistic heading into 2026.

Watch the full breakdown of Matthew Gardner's 2026 real estate market predictions here: https://seattleagentmagazine.com/2026/01/09/matthew-gardner-2026-real-estate-predictions/

01/17/2026

The Trump Administration has proposed a ban on instructional investors buying single-family homes with the goal of improving affordability. In this video, I give my thoughts on the topic.

The Trump Administration has proposed a ban on instructional investors buying single-family homes with the goal of improving affordability. In this video, I ...

01/14/2026

I gained 922 followers in the past 90 days! Thank you all for your support.