02/28/2026
WHAT ARE THE POSSIBILITIES OF WHO SHOULD TAKE OVER THE REGIME OF IRAN?
The current situation in Iran is highly volatile, with recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes targeting the regime, as announced by President Trump on February 28, 2026. Trump has publicly urged Iranians to rise up and “take over your government” once operations conclude, framing it as an opportunity for the Iranian people to seize control. [11] [12] Analysts and experts, however, emphasize that regime change—if it occurs—could unfold in unpredictable ways, potentially leading to continuity, fragmentation, or a new form of governance. Outcomes depend on factors like the cohesion of Iran’s security forces (e.g., the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or IRGC), public protests, elite defections, and external influences. There is no single “should” in this context, as it involves subjective views on Iran’s future, but based on recent analyses, here are the main possibilities discussed for who or what could emerge to lead or govern Iran post-regime. These draw from expert scenarios and public discourse, ranging from internal shifts to external figures.
1. Internal Succession or Regime Continuity with a Hardliner
• A managed transition within the existing system, where a successor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (such as a cleric backed by the IRGC) steps in to maintain stability. This could involve figures like Ali Larijani, a former IRGC commander and current head of the Supreme National Security Council, who has reportedly been tapped for contingency planning. [2] The goal would be preserving the Islamic Republic’s structure while addressing crises like economic woes or protests.
• Likelihood: High if the regime weakens but doesn’t fully collapse, as the IRGC has economic incentives to sustain the system. [7] Critics argue this would simply perpetuate authoritarianism without real change.
2. Military or IRGC Takeover
• Explicit control by Iran’s security apparatus, such as the IRGC or regular military, leading to a more authoritarian, militarized state. This could happen if clerical authority erodes first, with security forces sacrificing leaders like Khamenei to hold power. [3] [1] In a post-strike vacuum, IRGC officers might compete for dominance, prioritizing rapid decision-making and less diplomatic restraint. [21]
• Likelihood: Plausible in a fragmented collapse, especially if protests overwhelm civilians but security forces remain intact. [10] [5] This scenario echoes historical precedents like Egypt’s military interventions and could escalate regional tensions.
3. Popular Uprising Led by Protesters and Defectors
• Iranians themselves, through ongoing protests, could overthrow the regime with support from defecting security forces or armed protesters seizing institutions like police stations or state media. [0] [6] This might lead to a broad coalition broadcasting the end of the Islamic Republic, similar to the 1979 revolution’s dynamics.
• Likelihood: Dependent on U.S./Israeli strikes weakening the regime enough for unarmed demonstrators to gain momentum. [0] Recent reports of defections and readiness for street action support this, but it risks chaos without clear leadership. [15]
4. Exiled Opposition Figures, Such as Reza Pahlavi
• Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah, is frequently cited as a unifying transitional leader who could bridge to democracy. He has pledged to serve temporarily, stabilizing the country before a referendum on the future government (e.g., monarchy or republic). [8] [4] [24] Many Iranians, both inside and abroad, rally around him as a non-clerical, secular option rejecting reformists like Rouhani or Larijani. [16] [20] [17]
• Likelihood: Popular in opposition circles, but requires external support and internal buy-in to avoid being seen as imposed. [18] [3] This aligns with calls for a return to Persian identity and could reduce Russian/Chinese influence.
5. Other Opposition or Reformist Leaders
• Figures like former President Hassan Rouhani (a moderate cleric with U.S. dialogue experience) or Sayed Hossein Moussavian (ex-ambassador and nuclear negotiator) could emerge in a transitional role. [8] Alternatively, groups like the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK) might exploit chaos to seize power, given their claimed operations inside Iran. [23]
• Likelihood: Lower, as many Iranians reject reformists tied to the current system. [16] MEK has organizational depth but controversial history.
6. Externally Influenced or Installed Leadership
• A U.S.-backed scenario, akin to Venezuela, where a regime insider (e.g., an IRGC commander or cleric) is elevated in exchange for concessions like nuclear rollback. [4] Reports suggest U.S. understandings with internal figures for a six-month transitional phase involving opposition spectra. [22] Israel and the U.S. see the regime’s vulnerability as an opportunity, but this risks backlash if perceived as foreign imposition.
• Likelihood: Possible amid ongoing strikes, but experts warn it could lead to a “new strongman” or messier power struggle without guaranteeing democracy.
7. Fragmentation or Civil Conflict
• No clear leader emerges, leading to a power vacuum, regional fragmentation (e.g., ethnic groups vying for control), or civil war. This is the most dangerous outcome, potentially empowering rivals within the IRGC or opposition factions.
• Likelihood: Significant if security forces fracture without defections. It could also weaken Iranian proxies abroad, like the Houthis or Hezbollah.
These scenarios are not mutually exclusive and could overlap (e.g., a military takeover followed by a Pahlavi-led transition). The situation remains fluid, with risks of escalation or a more repressive replacement. U.S. policymakers are urged to prepare for deterrence while supporting paths to responsible governance. For the latest developments, monitoring real-time sources is essential.
