Ashton Coleman - Miami Beach & South Florida Real Estate

08/31/2026

Monday Market Update

Week of September 1, 2026 | Miami-Dade & Broward Luxury Condos

1. MIAMI-DADE & BROWARD: LOCAL PULSE

In some metros, inventory expansion is creating buyer leverage; in supply-constrained markets like Miami Beach, the opposite is true. Know which game you're playing before you price.

Ultra-luxury on track for a record year. Miami-Dade recorded 24 trophy sales ($30M+) in H1 2026, putting the market on pace to surpass the 33-sale record set in all of 2025. Ultra-luxury is outpacing NYC and the Bay Area in aggregate volume.

Existing condo sales accelerating. Miami-Dade existing condo sales rose +11.96% YOY in June, hitting 1,058 transactions. Active condo inventory dropped -11.47% YOY — its fifth consecutive monthly decrease — tightening the supply picture.

Two separate Miami condo markets:

Miami Beach — scarcity story. Land-constrained, supply-constrained, and increasingly insurance/assessment-constrained. Average sold price: $2.08M (157 sales). This is a seller's market.

Mainland (Brickell, Edgewater, Downtown) — growth story with buyer leverage. Wide gap between ask and closed price, longer marketing times, few sales above list. Median condo: $620K in Brickell; ultra-luxury ($3M+) averaging $1,800+/sq ft.

Generational split in pricing:

Pre-2000 condo median: $415K, down 8%
Post-2010 condo median: $715K, up 15% (all-time high)

The structural inspection and assessment pressure is doing the work here — older inventory is getting repriced.

2. MACRO FACTORS

Mortgage rates: stuck in a range. The 30-year fixed sits at 6.65% (as of Aug. 20), up sharply from 5.98% in late February. Impact on luxury: Cash buyers dominate South Florida luxury, so rate sensitivity is lower than in the broader market.

Foreign buyers: the structural floor. Foreign buyers account for 52% of new construction sales in South Florida; 86% of those are Latin American; Colombia leads at a 15% share. Foreign buyers committed $4.4B to South Florida real estate in 2025 (+42% YOY)

Miami is #1 in the US for international real estate investment

All-cash purchase patterns remain dominant — rate movements largely irrelevant for this cohort.

3. THE CONDO ASSESSMENT HEADWIND

This is the story that keeps compounding. Milestone inspection deadline: December 31, 2026. Buildings 3+ stories reaching 30 years old (25 years within 3 miles of the coast) must complete milestone structural inspections. Missing the deadline triggers $500/day fines and possible vacate orders.

Fannie Mae unavailable list: 696 in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach combined. Conventional financing is inaccessible in these buildings — cash only or portfolio loans.

Special assessments: Running $10K–$100K+ per unit across the region for deferred structural reserves and repairs. This is repricing the pre-2000 inventory and driving buyers toward post-2010 construction.

Opportunity: Post-2010 buildings with clean reserve studies and no Fannie Mae flags are becoming premium assets.

08/29/2026

L A P E R L A 🌊


The SE corner just hits the ❤️ differently.

08/24/2026

🏙️ Monday Morning Market Update
Week of August 24, 2026 | Luxury Condo & Coastal Real Estate

1. MARKET CONDITIONS — BUYER'S MARKET, BUT LUXURY IS THE EXCEPTION

The broader Florida condo market is decisively in buyer territory: 48,000+ active listings statewide, 9.1 months of supply (vs. 5.5 = balanced), and homes sitting 90–105 days before going under contract.

The luxury tier is diverging. Miami-Dade logged 24 closings at $30M+ in the first half of 2026 — already on pace to break the full-year 2025 record of 33. Luxury home prices in Miami rose 14.2% YoY, second fastest of any U.S. metro. South Florida recorded 2x more $10M+ transactions in Q1 2026 vs. the prior year.

What this means for you: Inventory gives buyers leverage in the $500K–$2M condo segment. Above $3M, sellers still hold cards.

2. NOTABLE DEALS — MIAMI BEATS NYC AND BAY AREA

Miami Beach: Vacant lot at 2740 North Bay Road closed at $72 million — land-only, signals ultra-prime waterfront demand is unbroken.

NYC comp: A 432 Park Ave penthouse sold for $22M — down 30% from its 2019 price of $31.5M. Miami's trajectory is the inverse of NYC's.

Miami ultra-luxury: On track to surpass NYC and the Bay Area in total ultra-luxury volume for 2026 — not just per-unit, aggregate dollar volume.

Broward check: Broward's ultra-luxury (top 1%) threshold sits at $2.8M. Still a significant spread vs. Miami-Dade's $10M floor for the top 1%.

3. MACRO FACTORS

Rates: 30-year fixed at 6.65% as of Aug 20 — near a one-year high. The Fed under Chair Warsh is running hawkish, focused on inflation over labor. Fannie Mae projects rates at 6.4% through year-end; MBA says 6.5% in Q3/Q4. No cuts imminent.

Implication for luxury: High rates are barely a factor above $3M — 60–70%+ of those deals are all-cash. Rates matter most in the $1M–$2.5M condo segment where jumbo financing is common.

Foreign buyers: Still a major driver. International buyers account for 52% of new-construction sales in South Florida. Colombia is #1 for the third straight year (15% of all foreign buyers; 23% of new-construction). Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico rounding out the top four. A weaker dollar is amplifying purchasing power for these buyers — this is a real tailwind right now.

08/22/2026

A beautiful view can create the feeling. It does not answer the ownership questions.

Before you move forward on a Miami or coastal South Florida condo, start with three things: how you will actually use the home, what ownership requires, and what you need to understand about the building.

The goal is not just to buy something impressive. It is to buy something that makes sense after closing.

DM CONDO and I’ll send you the checklist I use to begin that conversation.

Ashton Coleman | Broker-Associate | ONE Sotheby’s International Realty

08/21/2026

A beautiful view can create the feeling. It does not answer the ownership questions.

Before you move forward on a Miami or coastal South Florida condo, start with three things: how you will actually use the home, what ownership requires, and what you need to understand about the building.

The goal is not just to buy something impressive. It is to buy something that makes sense after closing.

DM CONDO and I’ll send you the checklist I use to begin that conversation.

Ashton Coleman | Broker-Associate | ONE Sotheby’s International Realty

08/20/2026

08/18/2026

ST. REGIS RESIDENCES, MIAMI — BRICKELL IS RISING. 🏗️

Construction continues to make impressive progress at The St. Regis Residences, Miami, one of Brickell’s most anticipated new luxury waterfront developments.

The tower is taking shape along South Brickell Avenue, with top-off anticipated by the end of 2026.

Designed for an elevated level of waterfront living, St. Regis brings the brand’s legendary service, sophisticated residences, and sweeping Biscayne Bay views to one of Miami’s most desirable residential addresses.

Remaining residences currently start from approximately $7 million.

Interested in current availability, floor plans, or the best remaining opportunities?

📩 DM me for private details and pricing.

08/17/2026

A high price on a beautiful property is not the same as strong positioning.

For a luxury sale, the strategy begins before the listing goes live:

• The competitive set
• Presentation priorities
• Timing
• The information a qualified buyer will need
• The negotiation plan

Then, after launch, feedback should inform the strategy—not create an emotional reaction.

The objective is not simply maximum exposure. It is the right exposure, to the right audience, with a clear reason to act.

If you are considering a sale in Miami-Dade or Broward, DM 'MIAMI' and tell me whether you are buying, selling, or relocating.

08/14/2026

The view is only the beginning.

Before buying a Miami luxury condo or new development, evaluate three things:

1.How you will actually use the property.
2.What ownership requires beyond the purchase price.
3.How the building compares with real alternatives.

Property and market details should always be verified with current documents and qualified professionals.

DM 'MIAMI' and tell me whether you are buying, selling, or relocating.

08/13/2026

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