10/12/2026
Monday market check on Miami-Dade luxury condos 🏙️
Here is what the MLS shows for coastal condos at $5M and up:
263 active listings
Median ask: $8.25M ($2,482/sq ft)
31 closings in the last 90 days, $342M total
The 90 days before that: 62 closings
Median closed price: $8.45M
Closed sales averaged 92.5% of last list price
34 under contract (about 13% of active)
Read that again. Supply is roughly 25 months at the current pace. That number is rough, because it comes from one search and a slow summer, but the direction is clear.
Of the 28 closings with list data, 5 closed at or above ask. 7 closed more than 10% below.
Between $3M and $5M the picture is similar: 280 active, 33 closings, median $3.78M, and 10 of 32 closed below 90% of ask.
Houses are moving faster. Above $5M, single-family shows about 12 months of supply, and 21% of listings are under contract.
Latest condo closing worth noting: 18975 Collins Ave #5403 (Residences by Armani Casa) closed Oct 5 at $3.92M, $1,726/sq ft, 98% of list, after 413 days on market.
Rates: Freddie Mac's 30-year average hit 7.40% on Oct 8, up from 7.28%. The Fed meets Oct 27–28.
Why it matters: in a market with this much inventory, the first price is rarely the final price. Pricing close to recent closings is the lever sellers control.
What to watch next: the Fed's Oct 27–28 meeting, and whether the 30-day closing count (12 at $5M+) climbs back toward the 90-day average of about 10 per month or keeps sliding.
Are you seeing more negotiation on your side of the table? Tell me in the comments, or DM me for a building-level read.
Source: SEFMLS/Matrix, $3M+ coastal Miami-Dade search, own calculations.
