04/13/2024
Here are the top markets for apartment demand over the last 12 months. Key takeaway: These are big numbers, BUT not enough to keep pace with the tidal wave of supply. And -- contrary to popular narrative -- the supply/demand gap is not just a Sun Belt thing. Apartment supply exceeds demand in most parts of the country.
But, of course, Texas is also building a lot of new apartments -- especially in Austin -- so supply exceeded demand, and rents fell in all of the major Texas metros. Texas (like other Sun Belt markets) had consistently seen demand top previous supply peaks from 2010 through 2021, which in turn kept vacancy low and rent growth elevated. But this time is clearly different amidst a generational supply surge that'll stretch into early 2025 before falling off.
It was a similar story across other big-demand-but-bigger-supply Sun Belt and Mountain markets like Phoenix, Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville, Raleigh, Denver, Orlando and Salt Lake City.
What is perhaps more interesting is that the supply > demand story wasn't limited to the Sun Belt -- although the gap is narrower in most other parts of the country. That list included Washington DC, Minneapolis, Northern New Jersey and Philadelphia. All four also saw multi-decade peaks in supply, which helped unleash some pent-up demand. But the smaller supply/demand gap translated to smaller vacancy bumps and allowed for continued modest rent growth.
Nationally, look for supply to remain above demand through 2024 and into early 2025. There's a lot of demand out there, and the funnel is widening as wages continue to outpace rents and consumer confidence rebounds. But supply is also peaking this year at 40-year highs, and it'd take post-COVID 2021 boom demand numbers to keep pace.
But don't call it "oversupply" because this is likely a temporary phenomenon -- not a long-term one. We knows permits and starts are plunging, and that should allow demand to catch up by 2026 or so.