01/05/2022
**LONG UPDATE**
Thursday is still a roll of the dice in regards to timing, temperatures and how much snow we will get. Let's break everything down for you...
What we know...
• Cold air will be in place which will allow rain to change to snow at some point Thursday afternoon
• There will be enough moisture leftover after the cold air is in place to allow for snow Thursday afternoon
What we don't know
• When the cold air will be in place
• How much moisture will be left
• How fast the storm will move out
1) - Timing:
Timing is looking like we could have rain moving in around noon, quickly changing over to all snow by 2-3pm. Some schools may get out early on Thursday for safety concerns. Remember...overnight temperatures tonight will be in the mid 20s in the areas we expect the highest accumulation in, so it won't take much snow to overcome the roadways. The system is out of the region by midnight Friday.
2) - Temperature:
Temperature is looking to hit below freezing between 2pm and 5pm. If we are cloudy most of the morning hours on Thursday, we could see an earlier onset time for snow, because we wouldn't have time to get as warm. If the sun pops out, we can expect snow to begin as early as 2-3pm, with rain starting first.
3) - Accumulation:
This is another tricky one, because it's likely it will start as rain, and finish as snow. Rain at the beginning really cuts down snowfall totals, especially in this case because there's not a lot of moisture to deal with anyways. This is also a fast mover, so there won't be prolonged periods of snowfall, however, any snow that does fall could come down at 1-2" per hour, so be prepared for rapidly changing driving conditions!
The best accumulation looks to primarily stick to the north and west of us (TN Mtns, WV Mtns, etc.), but I do think we can get in on some of the fun too! I've edited the map from this morning to reflect the most recent changes, and I'm moderately confident in this forecast. We will be updating it once or twice more as we analyze the latest model data, but I don't foresee any major adjustments.
One adjustment I did make from this morning is I re-extended the 2-4" zone and added 3-5" for the highest elevations.
2-4" mainly for the mountains, with 1-3 the closer to the east of the parkway, then a trace in the lowest elevations