09/27/2024
What You Need to Know
Initial applications for jobless benefits in the latest week fell to a four-month low according to a report released by the Labor Department yesterday, seemingly flying in the face of the recent slowdown in hiring. Initial claims for benefits fell by 4,000 to 218,000, fewer than the 223,000 forecast by economists. The four-week moving average, a measure that evens out weekly volatility, fell to 224,750, the lowest level since June. Continuing claims, which count workers collecting benefits for more than a week, inched higher to 1.83 million, remaining below levels reached from June to August. The low level of initial jobless claims is consistent with a relatively low rate of firing.
Separately yesterday the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that its pending home sales index rose slightly higher in August from a record low in the prior month. Contract signings rose 0.6% to a reading of 70.6, missing the consensus forecast of a 1.0% rise. Pending sales, which are a leading indicator of existing home sales a month or two down the road, rose in the Midwest, South, and West, while sales in the Northeast fell to their lowest level since the start of the pandemic in 2020.
Treasury yields rose on the drop in initial jobless claims, with the benchmark U.S. 10-year note losing 4/32 in price to finish the day with a 3.80% yield, three basis points higher than Wednesday’s close. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported this morning that the core personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, rose just 0.1% in August, less than the 0.2% rise expected by economists. The core PCE was up 2.7% from a year earlier, a slight rise from July’s 2.6% rate. The PCE data has pushed Treasury yields lower across all maturities this morning. Current-coupon MBS prices are 3/32 better than yesterday’s close in early trading.
Ernesto De La Cruz – Mortgage Loan Officer (NMLS #1487303) | Supreme Lending (NMLS #2129) | Cell: (214) 546-2041 | Office: (972) 646-7601 | Fax: (972) 380-3927 | Email: [email protected] | Website: ErnestoCruzLO.SupremeLending.com