02/23/2026
The Home Sales Conundrum: Buyers Aren’t Moving
National Association of Realtors research shows about 5.5 million more U.S. households can now qualify for a mortgage compared with a year ago due to lower rates. So, what’s holding buyers back?
Housing affordability is improving, but it’s not prompting a winter rush into the housing market. Pending home sales — a gauge of future home closings based on signed contracts — were essentially in a holding pattern in January, falling 0.8% compared to the prior month and by 0.4% year-over-year, according to the National Association of Realtors®’ newly released Pending Home Sales Index.
The weather has been blamed as one culprit for last month’s underwhelming sales numbers: Prolonged freezing temperatures and major winter storms swept across the country. But the Midwest, among those that faced severe winter weather, did still post the highest monthly increase in pending home sales nationwide in January, up 5%. The West was the only other region to post a monthly increase in contract signings last month, up 4.3%.
Overall, this winter’s housing market mostly has been subdued—a conundrum for a market that was starting to show easing conditions for home buyers.
“Improving affordability conditions have yet to induce more buying activity,” NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says about the latest home sales numbers.
Yet, more hopeful buyers may want to take notice: With mortgage rates nearing 6%, an additional 5.5 million households now can qualify for a mortgage—those who couldn’t last year when rates were near 7%.
Still, “most newly qualifying households do not act immediately” when rates drop, Yun says. “But based on past experience, about 10% could enter the market—potentially adding roughly 550,000 new home buyers this year compared with last year.”
A Housing Supply Issue?
Homeowners don’t appear to be in a rush to sell this winter. Housing inventories for existing homes were down 0.8% in January compared to December and were only up by 3.4% compared to a year ago, backing off what were double-digit annual inventory gains last year.
But with millions more Americans now able to qualify for a mortgage following the recent dip in mortgage rates, a surge of buyers returning to the market might not be entirely positive.
“Unless housing supply increases, these additional potential buyers becoming active in the market could simply push up home prices,” Yun says. “This will put increasing pressure on affordability, which is why it is critical to increase supply by building more homes.”
Yun notes that the House of Representative’s recent passage of the Housing for the 21st Century Act may be one piece that could help with that. It’s “an important signal that addressing the nation’s housing shortage remains a shared priority,” he says about the bipartisan support the bill has gained. “The legislation is a meaningful step toward expanding housing supply and removing barriers that make it harder for Americans to achieve homeownership.”
Realtor.com has put the housing deficit in the U.S. at nearly 4 million, given population demands.
Meanwhile, home prices continue to rise nationwide, although the increases are slowing, and some markets are seeing prices soften. NAR reported that existing-home sales prices hit an all-time high in January, a median $396,800 nationally. Also, 73% percent of 230 U.S. metros continued to see home prices rise year-over-year during the final quarter of 2025, according to NAR’s latest quarterly housing report.
Homeowners are still seeing record amounts of equity: Since January 2020, the typical homeowner has accumulated $130,500 in housing wealth, NAR’s research shows.
10 Markets Where Pending Sales Rose in January
Despite the national drop in contract signings last month, not every housing market has been iced out of home sales this winter. According to Realtor.com® Economics, the following 10 markets saw the biggest annual gains in pending home sales in January:
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz.: +11.8%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.: +10.7%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.: +10.7%
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, Calif.: +8.9%
Oklahoma City, Okla.: +8.7%
St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.: +8%
Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, Va.-N.C.: +7.6%
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, Calif.: +7.5%
San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas: +7.4%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.: +6.8%
