Brandy Gargis

Brandy Gargis "Home" is one of the sweetest words there is. - Laura Ingalls Wilder

Mortgage Rates Hold Fairly SteadyMortgage rates barely budged again on Thursday, but there was far less data to digest c...
08/27/2026

Mortgage Rates Hold Fairly SteadyMortgage rates barely budged again on Thursday, but there was far less data to digest compared to Wednesday. Bonds (which dictate rates) were steady to slightly weaker. The "weaker" part connotes higher rates, but the weakness was late in the day and too small for most mortgage lenders to do anything about it. What does that mean? Unlike the actual bond market, which can move every millisecond, mortgage lenders only change rates 1-3 times per day, and it's usually only once per day unless market volatility is high enough. Today's volatility didn't quite clear the bar. If bonds had lost slightly more ground, we might have seen a few lenders raise rates this afternoon. With that in mind, lenders are heading into tomorrow at a bit of a disadvantage. In other words, if bonds don't improve between now and tomorrow morning, the average lender will likely be offering higher rates tomorrow. One other thing to keep in mind is that Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to speak around the same time mortgage rates come out. There's no way to know exactly what that will do to the market (perhaps nothing), but it does create some additional volatility potential.

Mortgage rates barely budged again on Thursday, but there was far less data to digest compared to Wednesday. Bonds (which dictate rates) were steady to slightly weaker. The "weaker" part connotes higher rates, but the weakness was late in the day and too small for most mortgage lenders to....

Mortgage Rates Drift Modestly HigherFor all practical purposes, Friday's mortgage rates were unchanged versus Thursday's...
08/21/2026

Mortgage Rates Drift Modestly HigherFor all practical purposes, Friday's mortgage rates were unchanged versus Thursday's, but if we're splitting hairs, the average lender rose 0.01% to 6.77% for a top tier 30yr fixed. While many news outlets continue focusing on the mid-week announcement regarding Treasury's bond buyback program, today's bond market volatility was unrelated. Current levels are close to where they were before Wednesday's announcement and that makes sense to anyone who Wednesday's market reaction as 'overdone.' The upcoming week offers much more economic data in addition to potentially relevant comments from Fed Chair Warsh at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference.

For all practical purposes, Friday's mortgage rates were unchanged versus Thursday's, but if we're splitting hairs, the average lender rose 0.01% to 6.77% for a top tier 30yr fixed.  While many news outlets continue focusing on the mid-week announcement regarding Treasury's....

Highest Mortgage Rates in Just Over a WeekWhile Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey may show rates moving slightly...
08/20/2026

Highest Mortgage Rates in Just Over a WeekWhile Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey may show rates moving slightly lower this week, today's rates are actually higher than they were at the same time last week (6.76% vs 6.69%). Financial news continued to focus on yesterday's announcement of Treasury buybacks after Secretary Bessent spoke on CNBC this morning, but today's bump in rates had more to do with fuel prices. Treasury yields serve as an almost perfect proxy for intraday rate movement with 10yr yields often seen as the most common at-a-glance benchmark for mortgage rate movement (i.e. they tend to move in the same direction by roughly similar amounts). 10yr yields and oil prices were at the lows of the day at 1am. Oil rose fairly quickly through 8am ET and Treasury yields followed. Both peaked at exactly the same time and then remained broadly sideways all day. This isn't as scandalous or interesting as pretending today's rising rates had something to do with market backlash over the Treasury announcement, but it's the more accurate way to make sense of the day-over-day movement.

While Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey may show rates moving slightly lower this week, today's rates are actually higher than they were at the same time last week (6.76% vs 6.69%). Financial news continued to focus on yesterday's announcement of Treasury buybacks after Secretary...

Why Mortgage Rates Didn't Fall as Much as 30yr Bonds TodayMortgage rates dropped on Wednesday due to a combination of lo...
08/19/2026

Why Mortgage Rates Didn't Fall as Much as 30yr Bonds TodayMortgage rates dropped on Wednesday due to a combination of lower oil prices and the announcement of changes to Treasury's bond buyback program. The oil price angle is easy to understand. Throughout the war, higher fuel prices have caused volatility in inflation expectations and inflation is a critical consideration for bonds/rates. The Treasury buyback news is more complex and highly oversimplified by the average piece of media coverage. Here are the details that matter:
The original buyback program began in 2024 under the Biden admin when Yellen was the Treasury secretary
It is not quantitative easing or "new money creation."
Treasury gets money from issuing bonds or via other federal receipts (taxes, tariffs, etc)
The program was continued/expanded under Trump/Bessent
Today's announcement increased the amount of longer-term Treasuries that can be purchased in any given scheduled buying operation.
The goal of the program is to promote smoother functioning of the financial market, but it has a tangential benefit to certain interest rates.
Because today's announcement focused on longer-term Treasuries, longer-term rates/yields fell the most. Shorter-term rates actually moved up (which makes sense because the money to buy more long-term bonds technically comes at the expense of short-term bonds, all else equal).
On major catch for 30yr fixed mortgage rates is that the average mortgage-backed bond for those rates only typically lasts 5-7 years on average. So even though a mortgage CAN last for 30 years, the market treats them more like 5 year bonds because "duration" is everything when it comes to bond market valuation. All that to say: mortgage rates fell, but not as much as 30yr bonds (which fell A LOT today).

Mortgage rates dropped on Wednesday due to a combination of lower oil prices and the announcement of changes to Treasury's bond buyback program. The oil price angle is easy to understand. Throughout the war, higher fuel prices have caused volatility in inflation expectations and inflation is a c...

Mortgage Rates Start Week HigherAfter ending last week near the lowest level since July 17th, mortgage rates are moving ...
08/17/2026

Mortgage Rates Start Week HigherAfter ending last week near the lowest level since July 17th, mortgage rates are moving up to start the new week. Motivations are familiar. Escalation in U.S./Iran tensions is pushing fuel prices higher and bond yields continue to correlate. Bond yields correlate with consumer interest rates with near perfection. In mortgage-specific terms, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moved up 0.02% today to 6.73%. This is still much lower than the most recent high of 6.85%, but not quite as low as last Thursday's 6.69%.

After ending last week near the lowest level since July 17th, mortgage rates are moving up to start the new week. Motivations are familiar. Escalation in U.S./Iran tensions is pushing fuel prices higher and bond yields continue to correlate. Bond yields correlate with consumer interest rates with ne...

Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to End The WeekFirst, the bad news: mortgage rates ended the day just a hair higher compa...
08/14/2026

Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to End The WeekFirst, the bad news: mortgage rates ended the day just a hair higher compared to Thursday, but the change was so small that many borrowers will see little--if any--difference in pricing. Now the good news: apart from yesterday afternoon, today's rates would still be the lowest in 4 weeks (i.e. you'd have to go back to July 17th to see anything lower). Lastly, some news that's neither good nor bad, but simply a bit confusing. Today's higher rates followed this morning's Retail Sales report which came in much weaker than expected. Conventional wisdom would have suggested that weaker data coincides with lower rates. One issue is that Retail Sales is not in the same league as top tier economic reports like the inflation data seen earlier this week or the jobs report seen last Friday. Also, there can be more nuance to the retail sales data by the time traders consider temporary factors and timing. Lastly, sometimes the bonds market (bonds dictate rate movement) has simply done as well as it's going to do on any given week and it would take a much bigger surprise to overcome trading momentum that is happening for non-data-related reasons. In other words, traders can push back against the week's prevailing momentum on Friday simply as a byproduct of closing out the week's trading positions. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

First, the bad news: mortgage rates ended the day just a hair higher compared to Thursday, but the change was so small that many borrowers will see little--if any--difference in pricing. Now the good news: apart from yesterday afternoon, today's rates would still be the lowest in 4 weeks (i.e. y...

Mortgage Rates Back at 3 Week LowsMortgage lenders set rates around 10am ET every day, but the bond market dictates the ...
08/12/2026

Mortgage Rates Back at 3 Week LowsMortgage lenders set rates around 10am ET every day, but the bond market dictates the day to day changes, and bonds were on the move throughout the overnight trading hours. Granted, the movement wasn't extreme, but much like yesterday, it suggested a bit of optimism heading into this morning's main event: the release of July's Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI is one of the two big inflation reports on any given month (the other being PCE) and it has more potential to cause a reaction because it comes out 2 weeks before PCE. Given that last month's CPI showed a sharp drop in inflation and that July's fuel prices had bounced back up, the market was very focused on what the data would actually reflect. As it happened, forecasters nailed it. All the top-line numbers were right in line with consensus estimates. This is apparently the result that the bond market had been positioning for. There was no additional improvement in bonds after the data, but arguably a fair amount of improvement in anticipation of just such a result. The net effect is that the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate returned precisely in line with the 3-week lows seen last Friday. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Mortgage lenders set rates around 10am ET every day, but the bond market dictates the day to day changes, and bonds were on the move throughout the overnight trading hours. Granted, the movement wasn't extreme, but much like yesterday, it suggested a bit of optimism heading into this morning& #39...

Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly HigherIt ended up being a remarkably uneventful day for mortgage rates. Some lenders...
08/11/2026

Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly HigherIt ended up being a remarkably uneventful day for mortgage rates. Some lenders were slightly higher than yesterday. Others were roughly unchanged. The difference came down to whether the lender in question raised rates yesterday afternoon. What does this mean? Lenders prefer to set rates once per day around 10am ET. But if the underlying bond market makes a big enough move, lenders can change rates during the day. Bonds lost just enough ground yesterday for some lenders to raise rates. Contrast that to today where virtually every lender maintained the same levels throughout. Tomorrow morning brings the latest release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of the most important pieces of monthly economic data as far as rates are concerned. There's no way to know how it will impact rates ahead of time--only that a large deviation from expectations is likely to result in a larger-than-average move higher or lower.

It ended up being a remarkably uneventful day for mortgage rates. Some lenders were slightly higher than yesterday. Others were roughly unchanged. The difference came down to whether the lender in question raised rates yesterday afternoon. What does this mean? Lenders prefer to set rates once per da...

Mortgage Rates Rise Modestly From 3 Week LowsAs of last Friday, average top-tier mortgage rates hit their lowest levels ...
08/10/2026

Mortgage Rates Rise Modestly From 3 Week LowsAs of last Friday, average top-tier mortgage rates hit their lowest levels since July 20th. If they'd managed to drop even 0.01% today, it would have been a new 3-week low. As it stands, rates moved modestly higher in response to higher oil prices. Throughout the Iran war, oil and rates have had a broadly strong correlation because oil informs inflation expectations and inflation is a key input for the rate market. Even after today's rise, rates remain much closer to the lower end of the range over the past 3 weeks. Logically, any positive developments in the war or diplomacy should result in lower rates. Beyond that, there's separate volatility potential related to inflation reports that come out later this week, but as always, that could be for better or worse depending on the outcome of the reports.

As of last Friday, average top-tier mortgage rates hit their lowest levels since July 20th. If they'd managed to drop even 0.01% today, it would have been a new 3-week low.  As it stands, rates moved modestly higher in response to higher oil prices. Throughout the Iran war, oil and rate...

Mortgage Rates End Week at LowsMortgage rates dropped moderately today after the latest jobs report showed much lower jo...
08/07/2026

Mortgage Rates End Week at LowsMortgage rates dropped moderately today after the latest jobs report showed much lower jobs created than expected. The monthly jobs report is one of the most--if not THE most--important pieces of economic data to the rate market on any given month. If the numbers are close to forecasts, there isn't always a big reaction. Today's numbers were quite far from forecasts for some parts of the report, but slightly offset by others. The net effect was a decent improvement in the underlying bond market. Because mortgage rates are based on bonds, rates dropped accordingly. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moved down from 6.77 to 6.74--the lowest since July 20th.

Mortgage rates dropped moderately today after the latest jobs report showed much lower jobs created than expected. The monthly jobs report is one of the most--if not THE most--important pieces of economic data to the rate market on any given month. If the numbers are close to forecasts, there isn& #3...

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