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FULL SERVICE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE BROKERS, INCLUDING PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT. GOOD ENOUGH IS UNACCEPTABLE

Jim Carmichael is a seasoned commercial and investment real estate professional with a diverse background and an inspiring journey. A proud US Navy veteran, Jim served on the fast attack submarine USS Oklahoma City (SSN-723) before transitioning into a civilian career. Jim's journey into real estate began with mobile home sales, where he quickly rose through the ranks and achieved multiple sales awards. After the 9/11 attacks, he transitioned into commercial real estate, working with Marcus & Millichap, Sperry Van Ness & First Commercial Realty before joining Prudential Commercial Real Estate in 2013 which was bought by Berkshire Hathaway Homeservices. It was during this time that he found his true calling in commercial and investment real estate, as well as property management. Today, Jim leads a successful team of agents and has built a robust portfolio of investments, including a flooring company and other ventures. He is passionate about helping clients find the right opportunities and prides himself on providing exceptional service and expertise. Outside of his professional life, Jim enjoys traveling, fine dining, attending concerts, and riding motorcycles with his partner, Stephany Parker. He attributes his personal and professional growth to strong relationships, valuable mentorship from his broker David Mussari, and a deep sense of gratitude and faith. With an unwavering dedication to his clients and a keen eye for opportunities, Jim Carmichael is the go-to expert for all your commercial and investment real estate needs. Connect with Jim today to learn more about how he can help you achieve your real estate goals.

10/16/2026

Would you bet on or against technology?

From CRE Daily:

Blackstone Turns Computing Into an Asset Class

Blackstone has built a decade of data center bets into a $200B empire, and President Jon Gray now calls AI the firm's most important undertaking.

By the numbers: Blackstone's data center investments, counting debt and projects under construction, reached $200B in July, up from $55B in June 2024. For scale, its entire real estate book was last valued at $608B, making compute a fast-rising slice of the portfolio.

An accelerating bet: The firm leaned in with a roughly $10B purchase of QTS in 2021. The land QTS held was expected to last a decade, yet it was used up about 18 months after closing once ChatGPT set off a demand surge.

Beyond the buildings: The bet no longer stops at buildings. It now runs from server halls into chip financing, power generation and stakes in AI labs, and a 2023 loan to CoreWeave, backed by a Microsoft contract, helped create the entire market for chip-backed lending.

Powering the load: The electricity math is daunting. To feed the demand, Blackstone is buying into wind, solar, batteries and gas plants, infrastructure chief Sean Klimczak said, as BloombergNEF estimates these facilities will draw about 20% of US electricity by 2035, up from 5.9% today.

Spreading the chips: The firm has taken positions in Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI through its BXPE vehicle, partnered with Google on a cloud venture, and joined five other financial giants pledging $500B to fund Nvidia customers.

The bear case: Not everyone is convinced. Jeffrey Hooke of Johns Hopkins told Bloomberg the reliance on hyperscaler contracts is unproven, warning that tenants could decline to renew if demand softens and that packing these assets into retail funds could backfire.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY
What's at stake: Blackstone is wagering that computing capacity becomes an asset class as durable as warehouses or apartments. If the buildout holds, the payoff reshapes where real estate capital flows; if it stalls, that same concentration cuts the other way.

10/15/2026

It's like they read my post...

From CRE Daily:

Electricity Now Decides Where Big Projects Land
Electricity has overtaken land, labor and incentives as the single biggest factor deciding where America's most capital-intensive projects get built, from data centers to advanced manufacturing, according to a new site-selectors survey.

By the numbers: Among the 72 members of the 2026 Site Selectors Guild, 79% ranked power access a top influence this year, Bisnow reported, with labor and geopolitics each at 50%. More than half said inadequate supply alone is now enough to strike a location off the list.

A fast reversal: The shift has been abrupt. Tariff policy topped the guild's 2025 list at 87% and utility capacity drew 66%, while workforce availability ranked first as recently as 2024 at 76%, showing how quickly the grid jumped the queue.

Demand outruns supply: Goldman Sachs Research projects US electricity demand for these projects climbing from 31 GW in 2025 to 66 GW by 2027, a jump of more than 100% led by data centers. Utilities cannot keep pace, and equipment lead times have become the gating factor.

US power demand for capital-intensive projects
2025 31 GW
2027 66 GW
Source: Goldman Sachs Research

A plant on hold: The stakes are concrete. USA Rare Earth approached Cherokee County, S.C. in February about a $1B facility with roughly 500 jobs that needed 70 MW within two years, yet the site had capacity for just 1 MW until a state senator pushed Duke Energy to commit.

Local pushback: Opposition is now a screening factor too. Some 22% of consultants cited community resistance as grounds to drop a site, and Data Center Watch counted at least 45 projects worth about $68B blocked or delayed between April and June, after 75 worth $130B in the first quarter.

Who wins ground: Sites with secured power increasingly win on both price and speed. Developers and brokers who document available capacity before going to market hold the edge, and groups like Greater New Orleans Inc. are gathering that data early with state-backed certification funding.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY
What's next: Expect more local governments to press utilities for faster interconnection and more scrutiny of where campuses land. For owners and developers, lining up power before entitlements is becoming the clearest path to winning the next capital-intensive deal.

10/14/2026

From CRE Daily:

The Sun Belt Works Off Its Glut at Three Speeds

The Sun Belt multifamily market is slowly recovering from its post-pandemic supply glut, but slowing migration and uneven demand are keeping some markets behind.

The big picture: The pandemic boom added 673,000 apartments and pushed rents up 30% between 2021 and 2024. Now, Yardi expects major oversupplied markets to return to positive rent growth by the end of 2027.

By the numbers: Sun Belt construction starts have plunged 75% from their 2022 peak. National apartment deliveries are projected to fall from 696,000 units in 2024 to 421,000 in 2026, with another 24% decline expected in 2027.

Multifamily completions in Sun Belt cities for 2024 and 2025, with estimates for 2026 and 2027. | Source: Commercial Observer

Migration slows: Florida's net domestic migration has fallen 80% from its 2022 peak, while Texas saw a 44% annual decline in 2024. Rising housing costs, insurance premiums, and reduced immigration are weighing on renter demand.

Leaders and laggards: Austin and San Antonio are leading the recovery as absorption outpaces completions. Phoenix absorbed 17,000 units in the first half of 2026, while Dallas-Fort Worth still faces a pipeline exceeding 40,000 apartments.

The supply squeeze: With construction slowing sharply, markets like Phoenix, Charlotte, Fort Worth, and Austin could face their tightest apartment conditions in years by 2028, potentially supporting stronger rent growth.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY
Timing is everything: The Sun Belt's construction slowdown could create attractive investment opportunities as excess inventory clears. Markets with strong absorption and shrinking pipelines are positioned to rebound first, making local supply-and-demand fundamentals more important than ever.

10/12/2026

From CRE Daily:
REITs Shrug Off a 5% Treasury as Fundamentals Take Over

REITs spent three years treated as a pure low-rate trade. This year the fundamentals are winning anyway, even with the 10-year lodged above 5%.

By the numbers: Total returns on the FTSE Nareit All REIT Index are up more than 6% YTD. Capital markets never closed. The sector raised $19.8B in Q3, matching Q2 and lifting the 2026 haul to $65.7B, nearly even with the $65.9B raised through the same point in 2025.

Yields lose their grip: Cohen & Steers found the correlation between REIT returns and 10-year yields has flipped repeatedly over time, so direction alone no longer predicts performance. Hoya Capital pegs the REIT-to-rate relationship at its weakest in about four years, and 58 of the 98 REITs that issued full-year guidance have raised it.

Profits carry the load: Cohen & Steers’ Seth Laughlin notes the 10-year is up roughly 100 bps in a year, forcing every asset class to compete with richer yields. Yet REIT earnings growth has accelerated to about 9% this year and should run near 8% in 2027. “Under the hood, the economy is really healthy, and I think about REITs as sort of the landlord to the broader economy,” he told CNBC.

Discipline tightens supply: Excluding data centers, REIT development pipelines sit about 40% below both their 2022 peak and their 2019 level, choking off the future competition that would otherwise pressure rents and occupancy across most property types. Data centers are the exception. Their pipelines run roughly seven times their 2019 size.

Capital turns choosy: Debt made up 50% of what REITs raised through Q3, down from 59% a year earlier, as the weighted-average coupon on new REIT debt climbed to 5.4% from 4.7% in the Q1. Buyers kept writing checks anyway, led in Q2 by health care ($9.5B), retail ($4.7B) and data centers ($4.3B).

Winners and laggards split: The spread is wide. Hotel, data-center and senior-housing names lead with double-digit returns, and even office and regional-mall REITs are positive. Apartment REITs remain in the red, still grinding through oversupply and soft rents.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY
The real divide: The rate shock that was supposed to break REITs mostly didn't, and the gap now runs along fundamentals rather than the yield curve. Sectors with genuine earnings growth and disciplined pipelines are absorbing pricier debt, while oversupplied corners keep paying for it. For investors, the signal is to underwrite cash-flow durability, not a rate cut that may never arrive.

10/09/2026

Last month, a seller told me a deal was priced at $2 million.

After a few conversations, it became clear: what they actually needed was about $500,000 in cash to retire a partner, settle a small lien, and walk away clean.

The listed price wasn’t off. The gap just wasn’t a pricing gap. It was a structure gap.

That kind of gap comes up more often than anyone admits out loud. And it isn’t usually fixed by a smaller number, a cheaper rate, or a more patient buyer. It’s fixed by someone who can:

• Read what the seller really needs beneath the asking price
• Read the cash flow and timing underneath the numbers
• Build a structure both sides can actually sign

That’s the work Cairnscript was built to do.

We sit alongside investors, brokers, and owners on the commercial deals the standard forms don’t quite cover split sales, seller financing, partial-interest assumptions, equity-for-control trades, and the quieter negotiations around them.

No pitch deck. No pressure. Just experienced judgment applied to the deal you actually have.

If you’ve got a deal on your desk that won’t fit a standard form, the guide below walks through a few of the shapes it might take.

→ Grab “17 Ways to Structure a Real Estate Deal When Cash and Conventional Financing Aren’t Enough” https://tinyurl.com/3uzwp5p7
(If the guide isn’t live yet, that link routes to the Cairnscript waitlist.)

10/07/2026

From CRE Daily:

Rising Rates Put CRE Deals Back on the Negotiating Table
CRE’s recovery is running into a familiar obstacle: sharply higher borrowing costs are forcing buyers to renegotiate deals and owners to brace for more refinancing pressure.

Deals are getting retraded: Buyers who agreed to acquisitions when financing was cheaper are increasingly demanding price cuts or better terms before closing. The trend accelerated as bond yields climbed and the Fed raised its benchmark rate, making CRE’s lengthy closing periods increasingly costly.

By the numbers: Eastham Capital negotiated a $600,000 discount on a roughly $20M, 200-unit Midwest apartment deal after borrowing costs jumped more than 60 bps. Medalist Diversified also trimmed $100,000 from a $10.2M retail sale after its buyer sought relief.

The recovery hits turbulence: CRE had begun recovering as development slowed, office attendance improved and borrowing costs stabilized. Higher rates are now pressuring valuations and making projects harder to pencil. Since late August, the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs Index fell more than 8% through Oct. 2, while the S&P 500 gained 1%.

Refinancing risk is building: More than $5T in commercial and multifamily mortgages remains outstanding, leaving borrowers exposed as lower-rate loans mature. In August, 11.42% of CMBS loans were in special servicing, according to Trepp, the highest level since February 2013.

Capital hasn’t disappeared: There’s still plenty of money chasing strong deals. Northwind Group recently provided a $208M mortgage for a Brooklyn office-to-apartment conversion, drawing heavy competition from banks and private lenders. Capital remains available, but it’s getting more selective and expensive.

More friction, fewer freebies: Even strong properties aren’t immune. A bank pulled out of a $45M construction loan for a more than 90%-leased North Carolina retail center, forcing Marcus & Millichap to find a replacement lender.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

The rate reset is becoming a price reset: CRE still has liquidity, but higher debt costs are widening the gap between buyers and sellers. If rates stay elevated, today’s retrades could become a broader repricing, giving well-capitalized investors more leverage as refinancing deadlines approach.

10/06/2026

From CRE Daily:

Life Insurers Are Taking Bigger CRE Lending Risks
Once viewed as CRE’s conservative capital source, life insurers are loosening underwriting and expanding into riskier corners of the market just as higher rates put more pressure on borrowers.

By the numbers: Insurance lenders posted the biggest increase in leverage among lender groups in the first half of 2026, according to MSCI. Their average loan-to-value ratio climbed 2.5 percentage points to 62.7%. Across all CRE lenders, LTVs rose to 65.9%, up from 64.2% a year earlier.

A massive CRE footprint: Life insurers account for more than 95% of insurance-industry commercial loans and held roughly $940B of CRE exposure in 2024 through mortgages and CMBS. Moody’s had projected that figure would reach approximately $960B in 2025, continuing annual growth of roughly 2%.

What changed: Private equity's growing presence in the insurance industry is reshaping investment strategies. Major acquisitions involving Blackstone, Brookfield, and Apollo have coincided with insurers expanding beyond traditionally conservative mortgages into private credit and other higher-yielding assets.

The refinancing test: A sizable maturity wave is approaching, with $44B of insurer-held CRE loans maturing in 2027, $55.5B in 2028 and $57.3B in 2029, according to MSCI. Persistently elevated or rising rates could make refinancing more difficult and increase default risk for borrowers whose original loans were struck in a cheaper capital environment.

Data centers enter the spotlight: Roughly 30% of insurers’ real estate lending went to data center projects last year, according to MSCI. The sector’s rapid expansion has attracted regulatory attention, with the National Association of Insurance Commissioners reviewing insurers’ data center investments amid concerns about valuations and concentration risk.

Private credit gets scrutiny: Insurers’ broader private-credit holdings have reached about $1.2T. Sen. Elizabeth Warren recently questioned whether regulators have enough visibility into complex and affiliated investments, warning that poor underwriting or inflated valuations could ultimately threaten policyholders. The NAIC has responded by pledging tighter assessments of private credit and complex investments.

The opportunity: Not everyone sees the shift as a warning sign. KKR’s Matt Salem argues that CRE repricing has created attractive opportunities for insurance capital, particularly in senior secured debt, as investors seek stronger yields and downside protection.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

More risk, less cushion: Life insurers are taking on more CRE risk as they chase higher yields and expand into private credit. With elevated rates and a growing maturity wall ahead, that strategy could soon face its biggest test.

10/05/2026

From CRE Daily:
Industrial Market Steadies as Supply and Demand Find Firmer Footing
The industrial market is settling after its historic building boom, with resilient demand, disciplined development, and e-commerce helping absorb new supply.

By the numbers: National industrial rents averaged $9.31/SF in August, up 5.4% YoY, while vacancy held at 9.3%. Atlanta led major markets for rent growth at 7.9%, followed by New Jersey and Miami at 7.6% and Dallas at 7.5%.

The rent reset: New leases averaged $10.19/SF, an $0.88 premium to in-place rents. That gap has narrowed from $1.43 a year ago and $2.45 two years ago, signaling that landlord pricing power continues to normalize.

A tale of two markets: Sun Belt markets including Dallas, Phoenix, Atlanta and Houston continue to post solid rent growth despite heavy construction. Coastal markets are softer, particularly Seattle, where vacancy has jumped 500 bps to 13.6% following a major supply wave.

Developers are thinking bigger: Roughly 446.9M SF is under construction nationwide, equal to 2.1% of inventory. Through August, 49 projects larger than 1M SF had broken ground, with these mega-facilities accounting for more than 32% of 2026 starts by square footage.

Supply hot spots: Phoenix stands out, with construction at 6.8% of inventory and its total construction-plus-planned pipeline reaching 14.0%. Columbus follows with 4.2% of stock under construction, while Dallas sits at 3.5%.

E-commerce delivers: Online sales reached $340.2B in Q2, up 12.2% year over year, while e-commerce hit a record 20.2% of core retail sales. That continued shift toward online shopping remains a powerful long-term driver of logistics demand.

Deals keep moving: Industrial transactions totaled $60.5B through August, averaging $138/SF. Dallas led the markets in the report with $4.1B in sales, while Netflix's $400M purchase of CBS Studio Center headlined activity in Los Angeles.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Moving toward balance: E-commerce and large-format logistics are supporting demand, while new construction has become more disciplined. Going forward, performance will increasingly depend on location, building size, and exposure to new supply.

10/02/2026

From CRE Daily:

NYC Rent Freeze Takes Effect as Court Fight Clouds Lease Renewals

NYC’s rent freeze is officially in effect, but an unresolved landlord lawsuit could turn today’s frozen rents into tomorrow’s legal and financial headache.

What’s happening: The Rent Guidelines Board’s freeze applies to rent-stabilized leases taking effect on or after Oct. 1, 2026. As existing leases expire, landlords must offer qualifying tenants renewals without a rent increase.

The legal fight: A group of landlords is challenging the freeze in court. Judge Brendan Lantry has so far declined to halt the policy or substitute the previous year’s permitted increases, meaning landlords must operate under the freeze while the litigation continues.

Lease limbo: The timing creates an unusual contractual problem. Landlords have already sent renewal offers reflecting frozen rents, and tenants have begun signing them. Because renewal offers generally must go out at least 90 days before expiration, more leases could be executed before the courts settle the dispute.

The big question: If the freeze is ultimately overturned or sent back to the Rent Guidelines Board, the court may have to determine what happens to leases already signed under the freeze. Attorneys cited in the report differ on the mechanics, but one possibility is that subsequently authorized increases could be applied retroactively, potentially leaving tenants with balances for prior months.

Why this could drag on: Lantry has ordered discovery, and a final resolution could still be months away. An appeal by whichever side loses could extend the uncertainty further. A previous legal challenge to a rent freeze under former Mayor Bill de Blasio took roughly seven months to reach a trial-court decision, which upheld the city’s action.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Lease uncertainty lingers: The immediate impact is straightforward, but the bigger CRE issue is the uncertainty surrounding signed leases, potential retroactive adjustments, and how owners should underwrite rent-stabilized income while the case works through the courts.

10/01/2026

From CRE Daily:

Mega Deals Are Distorting CRE’s Comeback

CRE deal flow was already picking up earlier this month. Now, a handful of blockbuster M&A deals are making the recovery look even hotter.

By the numbers: U.S. CRE investment volume through August put 2026 on pace to be the second-most-active dealmaking period since MSCI began tracking the market. Entity-level transactions reached $119B YTD, including a record $70B in August alone.

The M&A effect: Much of August’s eye-popping volume came from the formation of Vivmark through the Equity Residential-AvalonBay merger. MSCI treats the combination as a sale of both companies’ portfolios to the new entity, significantly inflating headline transaction volume.

Under the hood: Individual property sales tell a more restrained story. August volume fell 28% YoY, although MSCI expects that decline to narrow as additional deals are reported. Through August, individual asset sales were still 12% ahead of 2025, but that follows a much stronger 29% increase in 2025—evidence that the recovery is continuing, just at a slower pace.

Pricing barely moves: MSCI’s RCA CPPI U.S. National All-Property Index increased only 0.1% YoY in August. Prices improved at a 1.2% annualized rate from July, suggesting the sharpest pricing weakness may have been concentrated in late 2025 and early 2026.

The bond-market wildcard: Rising 10-year Treasury yields could pressure cap rates and valuations, while wider spreads between high-yield corporate bonds and Treasuries would signal investors are demanding more compensation for risk. That could translate into higher financing costs and tougher deal economics heading into year-end.

Liquidity is still there: One important difference from the 2007 cycle is that CRE debt markets remain relatively liquid, supported by a broader mix of lenders. Investors aren't confronting the kind of abrupt credit shutdown that followed the previous market peak.

The next test: The fall conference circuit, particularly ULI’s late-October meeting in Miami, should provide a clearer read on fourth-quarter dealmaking. By then, buyers and sellers hoping for November or December closings generally need transactions to be well advanced.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

The rebound is real, but the scoreboard is getting distorted: Earlier this month, improving property sales and bigger-ticket deals pointed to capital returning to CRE. That trend hasn’t disappeared, but mega M&A is now inflating headline volume, making individual asset sales—and whether they accelerate into year-end—the better gauge of the recovery’s staying power.

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