09/28/2016
A REIT is a legal structure that owns, or finances, property that generates income. It pays no taxes itself but has to distribute over 90% of earnings to shareholders. Crippled by the financial crisis in 2008, they have since grown fast. This year their market capitalization passed $1 trillion, or 4% of the American total, close to the size of the utilities sector. They have been performing well, beating the market in 2014, 2015 and so far this year, when they have generated a return of 18.1%, and are trading at an average multiple of 23 times earnings, compared with 17 times for the S&P 500 index as a whole. In a mark of their new prominence, this month S&P and MSCI, another index provider, classified real estate as a distinct sector. The early REITS of the 1960s were seen as dull, niche investment vehicles designed to collect a steady stream of rental income. But what used to make them boring â that they resemble fixed-income bonds- is positively exciting in todayâs low-interest rate world. REITS churn out stable and predictable cash flows from five to ten-year long property leases. Their current yield is 3.6% higher than the 1.7% yield offered by a ten-year Treasury bond. Moreover, the growth of REITS has coincided with a soaring rental market after Americaâs housing crisis in 2008. As more people have opted to rent than own, rents have surged by as much as 3-6% a year in cities such as New York and San Francisco. Even in the suburbs, national REIT operators have emerged, buying and leasing batches of single-family homes with garden. As a group, three of these have made a return of 33% this year. A third reason for the current craze for REITS if that, since the crisis, they have become more diverse. Businesses not traditionally seen as part of the property sector, such as telecom towers, data centres and forestry concessions, have labelled themselves as REITS to avoid corporate tax and achieve higher marker valuations. They now make up one-sixth of REITSâ total market capitalization. Between 2013 and 2015 a wave of casinos and hotels spun off their properties, listed the assets separately as REITS, and leased them back to the operating business. Big firms such as Macyâs and McDonaldsâ have faced pressure from activist investors to do something similar. The REIT-creation frenzy, however, may already have passed its zenith. In June, the Internal Revenue Service, Americaâs tax bureau, issued regulations banning companies outside the property industry from abusing the tax-free REIT structure. So far this year only one REIT has listed its shares, compared with seven last year and 19 in 2013. Another looming risk is an interest rate rise. When the Federal Reserve hinted as tighter monetary policy in 2013, REITS prices dropped by 13.5% in five weeks, and the rental market is coming to a peak as supply picks up and demand weakens. âThe days of 6% rent growth in lots of markets are probably over,â says Mike Kirby, the chairman and co-founder of Green Street Advisors, a property-advisory firm. But REITS also look more resilient than they were in 2008. They have reduced their debt-to-asset ratio from about 70% then to 31% today. E-commerce may threaten some shopping malls, but also boosts demand for facilities such as warehouses and data centres. Last year four out of the seven top-performing REITs were data centres. The industry today bundles a range of different businesses whose only similarity is checking the same tax-free box.