09/11/2026
A weak jobs report used to mean lower mortgage rates. Not this month.
Private employers added 38,000 jobs in August, the smallest monthly gain since January. Softness like that normally pushes mortgage rates down, but they went up instead.
The 30-year fixed averaged 6.71% for the week ending September 3, up from 6.66% the week before and 6.50% a year ago. The 10-year Treasury sat at 4.80% on September 8, its highest level since November 2023.
Mortgage rates don't track the jobs report. They track the 10-year Treasury, and the bond market is currently pricing inflation and federal debt rather than hiring. Until that changes, soft economic data isn't going to deliver the rate relief a lot of people are still waiting on.
So don't build your plan around a forecast. Build it around your own numbers. What does your payment actually look like at today's rate, not the one you are hoping for? If it works, it works. If it doesn't, better to know that now than in March.
Thanks to Jason Watkins at First National Bank, whose market update prompted this one.
Michael Murphy | Dickens Mitchener Real Estate