07/06/2026
AI IPOs Already Increasing Home Prices
The Peninsula housing market has always been tied to the technology industry. Legacy IPOs of Google, Facebook, and LinkedIn suggest that today’s OpenAI and Anthropic, with valuations for each targeted at nearly $1 trillion, will result in employees acquiring substantial holdings of common stock and Restricted Stock Units (RSUs), much of which will be converted into home purchasing power. While the announcements are still months away, San Francisco’s median price has already jumped over 25% from $1.7M in June 2025, to $2.2M in June 2026. In Burlingame, we just sold a home for $400,000 over the asking price.
The most noticeable impact on housing will likely occur between the $2 million to $6 million price segment in neighborhoods favored by technology professionals and where inventory continues to tighten such as Hillsborough, Burlingame, San Mateo, Belmont, San Carlos, and Menlo Park. Looking back at inventory from five or six years ago, the Active Number of Homes in June was in the mid-700s in San Mateo County. This month it is 522. The perfect storm of low inventory, high demand, and readily available cash requires buyers to show a strong financial position.
Employees expecting future liquidity often begin house hunting before their shares become fully tradable. Specialized lenders increasingly offer solutions that utilize Restricted Stock Units (RSU) income to qualify for a larger mortgage, generate up-front cash loans during black-out waiting periods, or enable selling shares for the down payment. And they may not need to wait for the IPO to act.
Instead of waiting for their company to go public through an official IPO, some tech employees have reportedly cashed out early through private stock buybacks by either selling their shares back to the company or to approved private investors. However, recent reports suggest that OpenAI and Anthropic (among others) have significantly restricted Private Share Trading in order to control their cap table, protect valuations, and prevent speculative exaggeration ahead of the IPO.
If you’re in the market to acquire property, whether you’re a first-time buyer, downsizing, trading up, or moving out of the area, your circumstances are unique. To learn more about the dynamic real estate financing market, and how to optimize it to suit your aspirations, reach out for a personalized answer.