Kaufman Real Estate & Consulting

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Kaufman Real Estate & Consulting Principal-side real estate advisory, development, and insight from Daniel Kaufman — 25+ years, $2B+ in project value. kaufmanrealestateandconsulting.com

Serving developers, investors, and operators.

Housing hit a wall in September. Not just sales. Starts, completions, and the permits builders are sitting on.Pending ho...
10/21/2026

Housing hit a wall in September. Not just sales. Starts, completions, and the permits builders are sitting on.

Pending home sales fell 7.3% in a month and 11.3% from a year ago, the lowest since NAR launched the index in 2001. Housing starts fell 7.4% year over year. Completions fell 14%.

The number I keep coming back to: 279,000 units permitted but not yet started, up 9.8%. Land bought, entitled, permitted. Waiting on rates.

Rates hit buyers and builders at the same time. Fewer completions now means less new inventory in 2027, which is why prices (before incentives) are holding. If rates ease, both sides come back at once.

Full breakdown on The Kaufman Report:
https://danielkaufmanre.substack.com/p/the-market-didnt-crash-it-froze-from

10/21/2026

Here's a number worth sitting with. CRED iQ just resized 136 billion dollars of apartment debt maturing between now and the end of 2028, and found that loans holding 31 percent of that balance fall short of refinancing at today's rates. That is nearly one loan in four.

The split comes down to when you bought. Loans from 2021 and 2022, when money was cheap and rent growth assumptions were aggressive, need new equity 46 percent of the time. Loans from 2016 to 2018 only need it 15 percent of the time. Same asset class, very different balance sheets.

This is not a multifamily crash. It is a sorting event, and the owners who come out ahead are the ones running their real numbers now instead of waiting for a rate cut.

More in this week's Kaufman Report, link in the comments.

Builder confidence fell to 29 in October, the lowest since June 2012, but the map is splitting: the Midwest scored 40 an...
10/20/2026

Builder confidence fell to 29 in October, the lowest since June 2012, but the map is splitting: the Midwest scored 40 and the Northeast 38, while the South scored 30 and the West 26. Kaufman & Company founder Daniel Kaufman on reading the market region by region. Full release in the comments.

10/19/2026

Florida voters decide on November 3 whether to raise the homestead property tax exemption from $50,000 to as much as $250,000 by 2028. It is being framed as a tax cut for homeowners, but I think it is really a housing story.

A property tax exemption does not make the tax disappear. It shifts to renters and newcomers through higher rates on everything without a homestead exemption, or it shows up as thinner local services. The Florida League of Cities found 85 cities that could not fund public safety at current levels even after cutting everything else.

Meanwhile Florida's net migration has fallen about 80 percent from its 2022 peak. The real problem is not what it costs existing owners to stay. It is what it costs new residents to arrive. More in this week's piece, link in the comments.

10/17/2026

Two housing headlines this week. Bloomberg Philanthropies is putting $450,000 to $750,000 into 30 cities to speed up permitting. D.R. Horton signed a deal with Promise Robotics to build over 1,250 homes through factory made components.

Both help. Neither fixes the real bottleneck. NAHB says regulatory costs are now 26.4 percent of a new home's price, and mortgage rates just hit 7.40 percent, a three year high. A faster permit and a faster factory both shorten the clock. Neither one lowers what you paid for the land.

The cities getting help first, including Charleston, Nashville and Miami, are places where incomes have not kept pace with building costs. Faster approvals help. They do not fix land priced for a different market. More in this week's piece, link in the comments.

10/16/2026

Realtor.com's new ranking put Kenosha, Wisconsin in the No. 1 spot for hottest housing market in the country. The bigger story is what fell out of the top 20: Manchester, New Hampshire, which has topped this list 35 times since 2017, dropped all the way to 38th in September.

Homes in Kenosha are selling in about 32 days, a month faster than the national average, at a median price near $352,000. Manchester's median list price is $579,900, and the 30 year mortgage rate just hit 7.40 percent, the highest since late 2023.

It is not really a story about hot markets. It is a story about payments. Buyers go where the commute and the paycheck still work together. More on what this means for builders and buyers in this week's Kaufman Report, link in the comments.

10/15/2026

Two office reports crossed my desk this week, and together they tell a story bigger than either headline alone.

Manhattan office rents jumped 28 percent year over year, per CRE Daily citing Avison Young data, with availability now at its lowest level since 2020. Meanwhile Houston posted positive leasing for a second straight quarter, but almost all of it was tenants trading up to newer buildings, leaving older stock behind.

Same word, "recovery." Two very different experiences depending on where you own. I break down what it means for owners and operators in this week's Kaufman Report, link in the comments.

10/14/2026

Two headlines about apartments this week do not agree with each other. Nationally, the supply and demand gap is nearly closed, the smallest since 2015, and rents are growing again for the first time in over a year.

But break it down by region and the South tells a different story. San Antonio, Charlotte, Tampa, and Houston are all still seeing rents and occupancy fall, while San Francisco and Midwest cities like Milwaukee and Chicago are leading the recovery.

The same Sun Belt markets that built the most are the last ones to recover. I wrote more about what that means for builders and investors in this week's Kaufman Report.

10/13/2026

I saw two headlines this week that do not quite agree with each other. First time buyers are negotiating harder than they have in years, according to a new Neighbors Bank survey. At the same time, the Mortgage Bankers Association now expects the 30 year mortgage rate to stay above 7 percent through the end of 2027.

Leverage in a negotiation only matters if you can still afford the payment once you win it. Right now that is only true for part of the market. I wrote more about what this K shaped moment means for buyers and builders in this week's newsletter.

10/12/2026

Co-living is growing fast, and the reasons are pretty relatable.

A new Harvard study found 49 percent of US renters, about 22.7 million households, are cost burdened right now. At the same time, more renters say they want real community where they live, not just a lease. Zillow found 43 percent of renters now prioritize that, up from 39 percent last year.

That is exactly why we built Convivium Living around shared spaces, real programming, and smart building tech from day one. Operators in this space report renters saving 40 to 50 percent compared to a typical apartment, while getting more of the connection they are actually looking for.

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