04/17/2026
Real estate optimism.
This just in from my brilliant broker this morning:
I am bullish on Austin real estate for the rest of 2026.
Here is why...
The 10-year Treasury dropped 8.8 basis points to 4.228% this morning on geopolitical headlines out of the Middle East.
That is the kind of move that pulls the entire rate sheet lower, and our sheet reflects it.
As of today, 4/17/2026:
FHA 30-year at 5.875%
USDA 30-year at 5.875%
Conventional 15-year at 6.000%
VA 30-year at 6.000%
Conventional 30-year at 6.375%
Jumbo 30-year at 6.500%
Now look at what is happening underneath:
Pending properties are up year over year. The most recent data shows pending listings at 5,007 across the metro area, up 2.7% from this time last year. Cumulative closed sales through April are running 14.0% above the historical average for this window of the year. That is not a stalled market. That is a market with real buyers pulling the trigger.
Affordability is expanding. The City of Austin median is down 6.8% year over year. The metro median is hovering around $443,500, down roughly 19% from the 2022 peak. Rates just dropped. Prices are lower. Inventory is at 5.46 months. A buyer who walked away 18 months ago is now looking at a fundamentally different payment on a fundamentally better selection.
Demand is absorbing supply. Above-list closings jumped from 13.12% to 16.25% in a single month. New construction Activity Index is sitting in Expansion at 33.67%. Correctly priced homes are moving and sometimes drawing competition.
Here is the translation for clients this week.
For buyers: the combination of a 5.875% FHA rate, prices 19% off peak, and real selection is the clearest window we have seen in years. Waiting for a better setup is waiting for something that may not arrive.
For sellers: buyers are active. The ones who show up are qualified and ready. Price it right from day one and your home joins the 16% closing above list, not the 46% sitting with reductions.
I am bullish on Austin real estate for 2026. The fundamentals are moving in the right direction, rates are cooperating, and the buyers who have been watching from the sidelines now have a reason to act.