23/09/2022
๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐๐ฌ = ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ญ๐ก ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ? ๐๐จ๐ญ ๐ซ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ
While interest rates do play a part in suppressing demand, market liquidity and prices, the correlation is not strong due to bigger market factors like supply shortage and rising rental returns - evident during:
๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ฒ๐๐ฅ๐
Where interest rates remained at absolute lows but demand failed to recover and property prices continued to fall due to declining rental returns, high rental vacancy rates and relentless/ extreme cooling measures from the Singapore Government
๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐ซ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐-๐๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ ๐ก๐ข๐ค๐ ๐๐ฒ๐๐ฅ๐
Where the 3-Mths-SIBOR was incrementally raised to 2% (floating rates close to 3%) but the property market concurrently started a multi-year bull run, erasing 3 years of decline in less than 1.5 years with the SRX Property Index (Private, Non-Landed) eventually rising from 164 to 190 by Feb 2022 (https://www.srx.com.sg/price-index).
Those that purchased a property in the early years of that cycle looked beyond the interest rate hikes headlines and saw a fantastic opportunity due to the starting en-bloc cycle and declining market supply and are now sitting on phenomenal capital gains within a short span of time!
๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ซ ๐ ๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ๐ญ๐ก ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ก
The existing property cooling measures in place make it hard for a crash to happen in the Singapore property market as long as unemployment levels remains low - we are no longer a highly speculative market and the majority (up to 85%) of homes are used for own-stay. My best guess is that growth will slow but continue an uptrend as our supply deficit will take many months, if not years to recover.
The Federal Reserve concluded its two-day meeting Wednesday, with markets widely expecting a 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase.