27/02/2026
๐จ ๐จ ๐๐ ๐4 2025 ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ ๐จ ๐จ
The UK Government has published official entry clearance visa outcome data for October, November and December 2025, feeding into the ๐๐๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐
๐๐๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐ฒ 2026 intake.
๐๐ฅ๐จ๐๐๐ฅ ๐๐ข๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐:
- Overall, 57,612 visa applications were processed in Q4 2024 compared with 47,068 during the same period in 2025. This represents an 18.3% decrease year on year.
- In Q4 2023, a total of 88,219 applications were processed compared with 47,068 in Q4 2025. This reflects a 46.6% decrease over two years.
- While the number of applications processed in 2025 fell by 10,544, the number of visa refusals increased significantly year on year. There were 3,590 refusals out of 57,612 applications in 2024 compared with 6,718 refusals out of 47,068 applications in 2025. ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ง ๐ข๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฑ๐ข๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐๐ฅ๐ฒ 129%.
๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ ๐ซ๐๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ค๐๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐ฒ/๐
๐๐๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ค๐:
The chart below focuses on seven key source markets for UK higher education linked to the January intake. Across most highlighted countries, visa refusal rates have increased several fold. ๐๐๐ค๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ง shows the most significant relative rise, with ๐ซ๐๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ฒ 609% ๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ ๐จ๐ง ๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ.
It is important to note that this dataset does not present the full picture for the January and February intake, as it excludes January decisions when a substantial number of outcomes are finalised so meaning the overall picture may worsen further.
The direction of travel is clear. The data indicate that stricter scrutiny is being applied in several key markets (writing this while gritting my teeth!).
PS: Some of the refusals, particularly those issued in October, could be linked to the earlier September intake (late decisions).
If you have read all that... congratulations. I rarely post here these days, so consider this is a special occasion.
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