04/29/2026
Via BNN.
OTTAWA — The Bank of Canada is holding its key policy interest rate at 2.25 per cent for the fourth consecutive time as it warns of higher inflation for the short term.
In its first monetary policy report (MPR) since January, the central bank projects inflation will peak around three per cent in April, before declining to its two per cent target early next year.
That drop in inflation is based off an assumption that U.S. tariffs will remain at the current rate and that oil prices will drop from US$90 in the second quarter of 2026 to US$75 a barrel by mid-2027. That’s a 15-dollar-per-barrel increase since the bank’s previous MPR.
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“After more than a year with inflation close to the two per cent target, higher global energy prices are pushing inflation up,” Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in his opening remarks. “The surge in gasoline prices combined with still-elevated food price inflation is squeezing more Canadians.”
A deeper dive into the various components of the consumer price index (CPI), which measures inflation, shows that rent and food prices remain higher than average, while other components have dropped back to their historical norms.
‘Little evidence’ oil driving overall costs: Macklem
For now, the bank says there is “little evidence” to show that oil prices are affecting the costs of goods and services more broadly. However, the country’s top central bankers acknowledge that their projections are heavily dependent on the outcome of trade negotiations with the United States and on the war in Iran.
“Governing council agreed to look through the war’s immediate impact on inflation but if energy prices stay high, we will not let their effects become persistent inflation,” Macklem said.
Compared its January report, the bank says its growth forecast has remained relatively unchanged. While consumer and government spending are pushing growth up, U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty are weighing on exports and business investment pushing it down.
The bank believes GDP will grow at 1.2 per cent in 2026, rising to 1.6 per cent in 2027 and 1.7 per cent in 2028.
Mideast war to affect energy exports
“The conflict in the Middle East will affect the composition of growth, but the impact on overall growth is expected to be small because higher oil prices increase the value of our energy exports even as they squeeze consumers and many businesses.”
The Bank of Canada will make its next interest rate decision on June 10.
If oil prices come down as expected and U.S. tariffs remain unchanged, the governor suggested the bank’s current policy rate could hold. Though he did not rule out adjustments.
“If this holds true, a policy rate close to current settings looks appropriate to support adjustment in the economy and return inflation to target,” Macklem said, adding there may still need to be changes depending on how the risks evolve. “But if the economy evolves more broadly in line with the base case, changes in the policy rate can be expected to be small.”
The impact of the measures included in Tuesday’s federal economic update were not taken into consideration in the bank’s latest monetary policy report.
Annie Bergeron-Oliver
Senior Correspondent, CTV National News