05/29/2026
Everyone's reading the headlines about Toronto condo prices falling. Almost nobody is reading the data underneath them.
Here's what stopped me in my tracks this week:
Condo construction starts in the GTA have collapsed by roughly 88% over the past three years. Analysts now project that by 2029, we could see virtually no new condos delivered to this market.
Sit with that for a second.
We are in a moment that feels like oversupply — record inventory, softening prices, nervous investors. And it's real. But the pipeline that fills tomorrow's market has effectively been switched off. You don't undo three years of stalled construction overnight. Buildings take years to plan, finance, and complete.
So the same market that looks oversupplied in 2026 is quietly setting up to be undersupplied by 2028–2029 — against a city that isn't going to stop growing.
Here's the lesson I keep coming back to after 18 years in this business: the best decisions in real estate are almost never made by reacting to today's headline. They're made by reading where the puck is going.
I'm not telling you to buy, sell, or hold — your situation is yours alone. But if you're a homeowner trying to time your next move, or just trying to understand what your property is actually worth in this market, that's a conversation worth having with real numbers, not noise.
I offer complimentary, no-obligation home evaluations. Always happy to give you a straight answer.
📞 647-885-6655
📩 [email protected]
🌐 www.askmateen.com
Mateen Mohammad, Broker — Homelife Miracle Realty
(Source: Bank of Canada analysis on the GTA condo slowdown)
