Dan J Reilly Real Estate - Fraser Valley & Vancouver

10/19/2026

IS 🚨 VANCOUVER'S $4.6 BILLION CONDO PROBLEM IS ABOUT TO GET A LOT WORSE.

Current stock is bad. The pipeline is worse. What most buyers don't see.

Where we are (Rennie Q1 2026):
📌 ~5,000 completed + unsold condos in Metro Van
📌 ~$4.6 BILLION sitting
📌 Only 1,340 condos sold H1 2026 — historic LOW
📌 Vancouver condo prices off ~10% from peak (BCREA)

Shadow inventory:
📌 Developers list 1-2 per floor plan on MLS at a time
📌 50 available = 5-10 visible publicly
📌 Public stats UNDER-report what's unsold
📌 No urgency — another identical unit always next

Why demand collapsed:
📌 Investors were 50%+ of pre-sale buyers in prior years
📌 Rents falling = investor math broken
📌 Federal 180 on temp residents + int'l students
📌 Rates jumped from pandemic lows

The PIPELINE shock:
📌 Completed + unsold today: ~5,000
📌 Under construction: another ~9,000 coming
📌 TOTAL pipeline: ~14,000 heading to market
📌 Today's number = TIP OF THE ICEBERG

Geographic concentration:
📌 Burnaby ≈ Vancouver + Richmond unsold stock COMBINED
📌 Metrotown, Brentwood, Lougheed boom = bust ahead
📌 Langley developers: mostly sold out

Why developers won't discount:
📌 Lender covenants block deep price cuts
📌 Lower comps = already-sold buyers can't finance
📌 Those buyers walk = situation gets WORSE
📌 Discounts happening — but often under NDA

Real takeaway:
📌 This decade's oversupply = next decade's shortage
📌 Buyer leverage on NEW builds is HISTORIC
📌 Negotiate per unit. Ask about undisclosed incentives.

Sources: Rennie Q1 2026 (via Globe and Mail); CMHC; BCREA.

Comment CHECKLIST for my free Homebuyer Protection Checklist. 7 things I check before a buyer writes. Free.

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Dan J Reilly PREC, eXp Realty. Not tax, legal, or investment advice.

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10/18/2026

$14,980,000 in West Vancouver. Worth it?

6 bed. 7 bath. 7,654 square feet. Outdoor pool. 15,562 square foot lot in Chartwell, British Properties.

Almost nobody watching will buy this house. But almost everyone watching will buy A house one day. And the mistakes that cost buyers at this price cost buyers at $500,000 too. Just with fewer zeros.

Before you write an offer on any home, check these 3 things:
What did the home next door actually sell for and has the market changed since?
What will it cost to fix in the first year and is the building, strata or neighbourhood problematic?
What things could make it difficult to resell if needed?

I put every check I run for my own clients into one free list.

Comment CHECKLIST and I will send you the Before You Buy Checklist. Free. No catch.

Want the address and full details on this house? Comment TOUR.

Listed by Wendy Tian.

Dan J Reilly, REALTOR, Dan J Reilly Personal Real Estate Corporation, eXp Realty.

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10/16/2026

Buying a home with schools in mind? Save this list 🏡

These 10 public elementary schools are worth exploring, but a rating is only one piece of the picture. Programs, catchment boundaries and enrolment availability matter too. Buying nearby doesn’t guarantee a seat.

Comment SCHOOL and tell me your preferred area. I’ll help you narrow down neighbourhoods and home options that fit your budget, with school boundaries checked along the way.

Selected schools, not a top-10 ranking. Source: Fraser Institute’s 2026 BC elementary report, based on 2024–25 results. Confirm catchments and admission requirements directly with the school district.

Dan J. Reilly | REALTOR® | eXp Realty

10/15/2026

🚨 CARNEY SIGNALS IMMIGRATION COULD RISE AGAIN AS CANADA'S POPULATION GROWTH SLOWS.

604Now flagged the trending headline. Here's what Carney actually said and what it would mean for Vancouver housing.

What Carney said (NYT, late Sept 2026):
📌 Immigration system is "back under control" after the post-pandemic surge
📌 Floated a "CONTROLLED INCREASE" at some point
📌 No timeline. No new target set

Why the question is being asked now (StatCan):
📌 Canada's population grew ~0.5% July 2025 → July 2026
📌 Temp residents fell ~154,000 YoY — largest drop since the EARLY 1970s
📌 Non-permanent residents: ~6.7% of population
📌 Federal target: NPR below 5% by end of 2027

Current immigration plan (IRCC):
📌 Permanent residents: 380,000/yr through 2028
📌 Temp resident arrivals: 673,650 (2025) → 385,000 (2026) → 370,000 (2027/28)
📌 Next 2027-2029 plan still being drafted

What it means for Vancouver housing:
📌 Metro Van has absorbed 60-70% of newcomer flows into BC historically
📌 Fewer newcomers = softer rental demand + less price pressure
📌 Any "controlled increase" re-adds demand into a 20-yr-high listing market
📌 Metro Van ended Sept with 16,394 listings — 24.3% above 10-yr avg (GVR)

The opposing view:
📌 C.D. Howe Institute recommends CUTTING further — 340,000 PR by 2029
📌 Argues infrastructure + housing haven't caught up
📌 Debate: how much population can housing supply absorb?

Sources: 604Now; NYT (Sept 2026); StatCan; IRCC; C.D. Howe; GVR Sept 2026.

Comment CHECKLIST for my free Homebuyer Protection Checklist. 7 things I check before any buyer writes an offer. 5 min. Zero cost.

Comment BUY for my Motivated Sellers List. Sellers who need to move. Free.

Dan J Reilly Personal Real Estate Corporation, eXp Realty. Not tax, legal, or investment advice. Every home purchase is unique.

10/14/2026

🚨 OVER $4 BILLION OF VANCOUVER CONDOS SITTING EMPTY.

CBC News reports Metro Vancouver's unsold condo stock has hit a record. Developers can't move inventory. Here's the verified data.

The record level (CMHC + Rennie, 2026):
📌 Van CMA unabsorbed condo apartments May 2026: 4,376 (CMHC)
📌 Up 76% from 2,488 in May 2025
📌 CMHC calls it a RECORD for the region
📌 Rennie Q1 2026: 3,945 unsold units = $4.351 BILLION
📌 Globe and Mail (April 2026): rolled up to $4.6B

What CBC's report highlighted:
📌 A high-profile downtown Van tower: nearly half of 330 units empty, 2 years after completion
📌 A Burnaby high-rise: ~75% unsold a year after completion
📌 Another Burnaby tower: ~60% empty 1+ year after finish
📌 A Coquitlam high-rise: ~half unsold 2+ years after completion

Why developers are stuck:
📌 Many lenders won't allow price cuts (re-triggers pre-sale deposits + damages comp values)
📌 Price cuts drag down other units in the same building
📌 Condo starts in Metro Van fell 40% in H1 2026 (CMHC)

The policy proposal in play:
📌 A proposed 2% tax on condos unsold after one year is being floated in the current BC election cycle
📌 Industry pushed back as unlikely to fix affordability
📌 Prices still haven't aligned with local incomes

Sources: CBC News (Oct 2026); CMHC May 2026; Rennie Q1 2026 (via Globe and Mail).

Comment CHECKLIST and I'll send you my free Homebuyer Protection Checklist. 7 things I check before any buyer I work with writes an offer. 5 minutes. Zero cost.

Comment BUY and I'll get you my Motivated Sellers List. Sellers who actually want to move. Real room to negotiate. Free.

Dan J Reilly Personal Real Estate Corporation, eXp Realty. Not tax, legal, or investment advice. Every home purchase is unique.

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10/11/2026

🚨 946 FORCED SALES IN 9 MONTHS. BC'S NEW RECORD.

Lower Mainland had 946 court-ordered home LISTINGS from Jan 1 to Sept 30, 2026 (Zealty). CBC confirms it exceeds any FULL YEARLY TOTAL in the past 10 years.

The headline (Zealty, 2026):
📌 946 court-ordered listings in the Lower Mainland (Jan 1-Sept 30, 2026)
📌 Higher than any full-year total in the last 10 years
📌 Court-ordered sales now = 1.10% of residential sales tracked by Zealty, HIGHEST since 2019

Completed vs listed:
📌 Jan-July 2026 completed court-ordered sales: 232 (+66% YoY from 140)
📌 Jan-July 2026 listings that EXPIRED or came off market: 284 (vs 154 in 2025)
📌 MORE court-ordered listings FAILED to sell than sold

The shift up market:
🏠 Zealty: "a lot of single-family properties being foreclosed"
🏠 BC Attorney General: foreclosure filings at a 10-YEAR HIGH
🏠 Mostly foreclosures; some bankruptcies + family-act filings mixed in

Why it's happening:
📌 Pandemic 5-yr fixed (1.5-2%) renewing into today's 4-5% range
📌 ~1M mortgages renewing across Canada in 2026 (BoC) = largest wave ever
📌 Higher-end leveraged owners feel it last, but hardest

Buying one:
📌 BC court-ordered sales typically sell 10-19% below market per sq ft
📌 They almost never go below asking price
📌 Court protects the original homeowner, not the buyer

Sources: Zealty (Sept 30, 2026); CBC; BC AG; Bank of Canada.

Buying a home is the biggest purchase of your life. Comment CHECKLIST and I'll send you the exact 7-point checklist I run through with my own buyers before they write an offer. Don't do it unprotected.

Tired of bidding wars? Comment BUY. My motivated sellers list puts you in front of sellers who want to make a deal, not start a war. Free list. Real leverage.

Dan J Reilly Personal Real Estate Corporation, eXp Realty. Not tax, legal, or investment advice. Every home purchase is unique.