05/08/2024
Australia made 9 changes to student migration rules over the past year. We donโt need international student caps as well
This week a Senate inquiry will look at the federal governmentโs controversial legislation to cap international student numbers in Australia from next year.
University-commissioned research predicts caps will cause a significant loss of revenue and jobs, including flow-on effects to the broader economy.
But my new report for the ANUโs Migration Hub, argues there are yet more reasons why the governmentโs international student cap is a bad idea.
The caps would add to many recent migration policy changes already reducing international student arrivals. Instead, we should wait to see whether these changes have done enough to bring numbers back to target levels.
What happened with international students?
Until late 2023, the Albanese government supported the return of international student numbers.
During 2022 and 2023 it cleared a backlog of student visa applications. It gave international students an additional two years in Australia after they graduated, provided they had one of a long list of qualifications.
These policies successfully rebuilt international education after the pandemic downturn. By May 2024 the resident student visa holder population, including partners and children of students, was 674,000. This was 58,000 more than the pre-COVID peak level. The combined total of students and temporary graduate visa holders was 887,000.
But by late 2023, the recovery of international education collided with rising rents and shrinking accommodation availability. The government hit the brakes on international education, and implemented multiple migration policy changes. Then, just before the May budget, it announced the caps, which it hopes will send student numbers into reverse.
The move to cap international students
If the legislation passes, the education minister will be able to cap international students by education provider, campus location and course. From January 1 2025, caps would apply to new international students, with ongoing students included in later years.
The legislation covers 1,500 education providers that deliver more than 25,000 courses in 3,900 locations. This includes schools, English language colleges, vocational education providers, universities, and non-university higher education providers such as the pathway colleges that many international students attend before moving on to a university.
At this point, there is no plan to cap school or research degree students. The focus of the 2025 caps will be non-school education providers in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane as these are the most popular cities for international students.
The case against caps
With course caps, the government hopes to steer international students away from current popular choices such as business degrees, and towards courses that meet Australiaโs skills needs, such as in health and education.
The in-principle case against caps is that students should be free to choose their own courses and education providers.
But the policy rationale of meeting Australiaโs skills needs is also flawed, as fewer than 20% of international students end up as permanent residents in Australia.
Principles aside, the education and migration systems are not ready to implement a capping regime in less than six months.
Several government agencies โ the vocational education regulator, higher education regulator and Department of Home affairs (which manages student visas) โ are so concerned they have gone public in Senate inquiry submissions. They say they cannot implement the caps with their existing setups.
missing a key part of the puzzle.
The government should announce the target student visa levels underlying its capping policy.
It should then wait to see whether student visa application and grants for the remainder of 2024 and first semester 2025 put us on track to achieve them.
If not, then perhaps education provider caps should go back onto the policy agenda. Going ahead now risks far more harm to education providers, and the students who want to enrol with them, than is necessary to reduce Australiaโs population.
Source:
A new report argues a huge number of recent migration policy changes are already reducing international student numbers.
