08/06/2026
The Australian Housing Market Isn’t Crashing—It’s Splitting (June Update)
The headlines keep screaming “housing crisis”, “affordability crisis”, “correction coming”. But when you look at the major capitals, Australia doesn’t behave like one market.
It’s behaving like two markets moving at different speeds.
Leith van Onselen (MacroBusiness), using Cotality/CoreLogic AU data, highlighted the divergence: Sydney and Melbourne have been softer, while Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide have been doing the heavy lifting.
What the data is showing (March + Q1 2026)
March 2026 (daily dwelling values index):
Sydney: -0.1%
Melbourne: -0.2%
Brisbane: +1.6%
Perth: +2.5%
Adelaide: +1.2%
Q1 2026:
Sydney: +0.1%
Melbourne: -0.3%
Brisbane: +4.8%
Perth: +7.4%
Adelaide: +3.8%
That’s not a national crash. That’s a split.
Why the split matters (an operator lens)
The key risk is treating Australia as one uniform market.
A two-speed market changes the questions you observe:
Where is demand still deep, and where is it thinning out?
Is this pocket driven more by borrowing capacity, or by supply constraints?
If prices are flat, is that weakness — or a pause while incomes and rents catch up?
In practice, the premium end tends to be more rate-sensitive. Meanwhile, the more affordable end in supply-constrained cities can stay firm longer than people expect.
A practical takeaway
Rather than “bull vs bear”, the useful posture is scenario planning:
What if rates rise again?
What if they plateau?
What if they fall, but supply stays tight?
Educational only — not advice.