05/11/2024
LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS
I shared this on Facebook that created a lot of discussion as a result of PNG Kumul's victory over the Cook Islands yesterday in the Rugby League Pacific Cup. Gerehu is a suburb in Port Moresby, PNG's capital city with an estimated population approaching 1 million.
In rugby league, the law of large numbers or selection effect can help explain why countries with larger populations generally have stronger teams. For example, Papua New Guinea (PNG), with a population of over 9 million, has a much larger talent pool than the Cook Islands, which has a population of around 14,000. This larger talent pool gives PNG an advantage in selecting from a wider range of athletic abilities, making it more likely to field a stronger team than the Cook Islands.
However, when PNG competes against a country like Australia, with its population of over 25 million and a well-established rugby league system, Australia holds a similar advantage over PNG. The greater population size and professional infrastructure in Australia mean they can identify, train, and develop elite players at a higher level. This often leads to a higher quality of play and a stronger team overall.
Of course, exceptions to this rule do occur, as seen when New Zealand—a smaller country than Australia—beats them. In this case, New Zealand has managed to build a highly effective development system that maximizes its talent pool and competes at a world-class level, proving that factors beyond population size, like quality of coaching, training programs, and sports culture, can also play a significant role in success.
In work or business, you get better the more you repeat an activity over time. A person who has say done tax returns correctly 1000 times will be much better and take less time than someone who has only done it 10 times. Quality, speed and accuracy increases the more you do a task as you learn faster and better ways to do it. This rule applies to every profession and industry. Practice makes perfect.
Want to be the best in your field? Do more! 💪